Leo von Breithen Thurn

EU Opens Membership Talks for Bosnia & Herzegovina

cc Jean-Etienne Minh-Duy Poir, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/jepoirrier/1274267541/in/photolist-2eucE5R-pD5iyL-UANC5Y-8q6p7f-9t2TyV-ZcBgmf-SapVZb-fbGUdW-oXgr8y-2iovYaD-2WAXm2-4VBm3Q-24AzEUh-6aE6QS-6aF8c9-ecyaib-Ax4iyL-CNo6R-zBnfgT-7iEAkY-2iSFRGk-8BgB5z-24TtHJf-TfYUYM-2ksHJTu-jybd75-2ogCf2k-hVTn3-2oifutD-2oiUFBV-bZwQiy-2oah1vt-Ti8Kt-2oGfogD-Zp8jS-ajCKit-ceYdrh-2oXAest-mG77e-2o7i8er-dXpEhj-2ocB4Pt-2iJdrD6-2ikmzjh-5waAHF-2oFKqn8-pFVcp6-VGCNLA-aJN7Sk-AznVaz

Examining the geopolitical interests and political hurdles underpinning Bosnia & Herzegovina’s EU ascension process.

Upcoming Rwanda Elections Could Ripple in UK and Beyond

cc Nomber 10, https://flickr.com/photos/number10gov/52869729202/in/photolist-2oxVbxd-oUGYcz-RJrwAZ-SJCtzN-2oxVbxt-7KQBox-2oy1kPv-2oy1kPA-2oy1kPf-puaLPt-r59HJt-rmbidd-ronZYJ-r59Kg6-r6RLZa-qTNowf-r6UPNw-r6RLiR-7KQAzg-rotkWH-rmbhNA-7KUA6J-oUMacn-RJrwoz-robHQx-qrG1YK-qrFXYr-nCzWde-pPjEoY-nCr1jf-pQzpVD-pRbwB4-27nmwAU-pQzuLk-r72eGv-mkKHA9-r6KhZL-pNHNuC-nEnc5F-mkUNEP-mmjrKr-pyZejH-pRuy8q-pQTx4b-SVATxQ-oUBSwr-pyZcNr-pyVJrF-pyneFC-mkUBhP; Prime Minister Rishi Sunak meets Rwandan President Kagame

The outcome of upcoming Rwanda elections could influence one of the Conservative government’s main policy planks, in addition to relations with major partners like Russia and China.

Geopolitical Consequences Abound in 2024 Pakistan Elections

cc Umair Ulhaque, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/umair_ulhaque/35702063604/in/photolist-WoSpEL-2mhmDQG-Y9K6K9-438ufE-7aeoEA-CrHMK5-67Gt9a-9ZrpKS-Y9K6wU-Y9K6os-YPegGf-YPeg6W-6CMbeN-2hvJSez-nkgeoY-YPegQ1-9ppdQf-YPegJj-2hvuNoG-Ytb8zd-67GGGc-2oZQ5Pz-dXg2w5-qNBL6Y-YPegEb-pHUBkF-oM73Ya-2hvr4Uq-oM7avi-prtfER-pHZ3kE-pFP9Ph-prq5ka-prssTF-pFP9Zh-pHEXTD-prq1Qz-prtxCm-pFPaxS-oM2vWu-oM44bb-oM45bY-pHYWcC-vu7pGk-oM3oSC-pHEVng-prokgM-prt7Nt-pHDmm8-2obVZVx

Pakistan’s general election could be highly consequential in determining the character of many of the country’s most important foreign relations.

The (Geo)Politics of Sweden’s NATO Membership

cc US Department of State, modified; https://www.flickr.com/photos/statephotos/52550581132/

Stalling by Turkey and Hungary over Sweden's NATO Membership has just as much to do with domestic political imperatives as geopolitical ones.

Red Sea Shipping Crisis Exposes a Weak Point of Global Maritime Trade

cc Official U.S. Navy Page, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/usnavy/51633151611/in/photolist-fK3wy6-XcsMha-2iUSAwa-2mEDp6V-fJnU8e-DRC6vX-2m9J13o-fLPUpt-fK3tCi-fK3qXt-fKjNXf-fK3gKM-fLvMro-fTjHSN-mEatRZ-fM8Yef-fLvLYj-fJnMXc-HasSKR-fM9821-fNjrPp-2ni4Fnf-fKCT8e-fJnUt8-2mJSoQf-fNjrSP-edDJW1-fLQBX2-fNB2uY-fKCQx4-jvAq6K-2aVUiFL-2ixTBqz-2mUn8zg-nUuVfC-2mEUcMB-fJEhyC-fK3qP8-fJnQu6-fK3sGp-fM7u83-fLea2e-fJnWKv-fLPMU2-fNjsXr-fLQGBR-fJnX8x-fNB1KL-fKCSNM-fNjrxX

Houthi attacks against global shipping in the Red Sea are exposing some key vulnerabilities in maritime trade and causing a re-think of anti-drone warfare.

Serbia Elections to Prolong Questions of Stability and Security in Western Balkans

cc kremlin.ru, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?sort=last_edit_desc&search=president+vucic+filetype%3Abitmap&title=Special%3ASearch&profile=advanced&fulltext=1&advancedSearch-current=%7B%22fields%22%3A%7B%22filetype%22%3A%22bitmap%22%7D%7D&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B9%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE-%D1%81%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B1%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B5_%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%8B_05.jpg

Another Vučić mandate will only exacerbate longstanding geopolitical contradictions in the Western Balkans.

European Elections: A Game-changer in 2024?

cc European Parlia, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/european_parliament/52358409262/in/photolist-2nLJwWb-2napvdT-2nRcteQ-2gA1SL8-2nLPpzX-2nLR1HU-2nLPpBv-2nLR1Nt-2naphqr-2ma2n1D-2nLNAyT-2gA1hUV-2gA1i5V-2gA1hQw-2nLR1GB-2nLR1FV-2gAbiWV-2oc7Jji-2gAbR83-2nagrxp-2gAbRbp-2nLQKiS-2nd1M8K-2nd2Wqg-2nLQKtS-2gAbRN6-2nLHHLK-2niwD2r-2oqgm6Q-2gAbiFp-2i1EMzN-2gAbjaW-2gAbRs6-2gAbRsm-2ma3fMG-2ooJvqD-2gAQ5MN-2nRctfM-2gAQ5Gs-2gAQEAR-2gAQEJS-2gAbiSb-2mzZkGC-2mzYbtT-2nd4jkC-2nd4jm4-2nLRyZi-2occAcp-2nLRyVv-2occAcK

Dramatic shifts in policy or personnel remain unlikely in the aftermath of European elections in 2024, though certain coalition compositions could still shake things up.

Kosovo in Crisis: Serbia Elections and the Community of Serb Municipalities

cc European Parliament Flickr, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/european_parliament/52978455110/in/photolist-2oHuwqi-2oHwqB4-2oHvhdm-2oHwqhg-2oHuvWn-2oHwqDU-2oHwQQs-2oHwqXQ-2oHwqUo-2nMEXFE-2oHwRcu-2nMFUYF-2mL2NM1-2omD6C5-2nqKCrg-2mL2NLV-2mL3TJu-2mKZGHR-2mKZGHA-2nqKCqK-2nqNaQJ-2nssiF3-2nsshE5-2nsxsqb-2mKUfgM-2oYyvDK-2oYyvDz-2pfYDMV-2pfYDZt-2pfRMe4-2pfXtFT-2pfRMcq-2pfY3Xd-2pfYC6d-2pfRMeu-2pfYD1E-2pfY2y1-2pfY48U-2pfRNas - European Union, 2023 - Source: EP - Laia Ros

Tensions are being ramped up in Kosovo and upcoming elections in Serbia on December 17 represent another potential escalation.

2023 Gaza Conflict: Future Prospects for a Fragile Ceasefire

cc IDF Spokesperson's Unit, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&limit=500&offset=0&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1&sort=last_edit_desc&search=IDF+gaza+filetype%3Abitmap&sort=last_edit_desc&advancedSearch-current={%22fields%22:{%22filetype%22:%22bitmap%22}}#/media/File:SoI-War_23-10-30_IDF_02-11.jpg

A four-day humanitarian pause has brought about a much-needed humanitarian reprieve and release of hostages, but don’t expect it to last beyond Monday.

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