Trump’s Middle East Visit: A Calculated Power Play in the New Geopolitical Normal
Trump will bring a long list of asks when he visits the Middle East for the first formal trip of his second term. But the Gulf states are not passive actors, and they will be making requests of their own.
Iran Negotiations Are Likely to Fail
Despite initial descriptions of the talks as “constructive” the prospects for a sustainable agreement remain bleak.
Hezbollah’s Military Tactics in the Post-Nasrallah Era
Despite Israeli successes in eliminating Hezbollah’s leadership, the group still appears ready and able to conduct a prolonged war of attrition in southern Lebanon.
The Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia Alliance: A Strategic Counterbalance to Ethiopia
Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea are banding together to contain Ethiopia’s expansion in Eastern Africa, producing far-reaching consequences for the geopolitics of the continent.
Iran’s UAV Diplomacy Resonating in Conflicts in MENA and Beyond
Although Iran’s UAV programs are not new, the international and regional threat from them continues to evolve at an unprecedented rate.
Al-Durra Field: Another Front for Regional Tensions with Iran
The Al-Durra natural gas field is emerging as a major new front in Iran-Saudi tension, one that could ultimately test their nascent bilateral détente.
Israel’s Escalation with Hezbollah: Possible Scenarios
Exploring the destructive regional potential of a Hezbollah-Israel conflict, and what has kept such a conflict from breaking out so far.
Red Sea Houthi Attacks Demand a Strategy Against Iran
The threat to maritime shipping represented by Red Sea Houthi attacks cannot be fully mitigated without a region-wide strategy aimed at the regime’s backers in Tehran.
Erdogan in Egypt: Strategic Implications for Turkey and Egypt
A high-level visit by the Recep Tayyip Erdogan marks the culmination of a years-long thaw in Egypt-Turkey relations.
Rafah Offensive Dims Short-term Peace Prospects in Middle East
An impending Israeli offensive in Rafah is creating new frictions with Israel’s long-term allies, notably Egypt, and imperiling any possibility of normalization with the Arab world.
