Antonio Graceffo

Trump Cabinet Signals Escalating US-China Tensions

cc Gage Skidmore, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/16470387237

Donald Trump’s early cabinet picks are a who’s who of China hawks and critics, indicating mounting US-China tensions over the next four years.

Rethinking Defense Strategy for a New Era of Total War

cc Kyiv City State Administration, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kyiv_after_Russian_drone_attack,_2022-10-17_%2832%29.jpg

Contemporary warfare is spilling from the battlefield into industrial, cyber, economic, and informational domains, and increasingly pulling entire societies into the conflict. Defense policy must adapt.

Myanmar Civil War: New Season, New Breakthroughs?

cc MPATV, Mon State Kyomaro Township, According to local residents, many houses have been set on fire due to the SAC's air attack on Dhammatha village as well as heavy weaponry., https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%80%93present)#/media/File:Mon_State_Kyomaro_Township_bombed_2024-03-28.jpg

After a year of territorial gains, resistance fighters are nearing the second-largest city of Mandalay. Yet changing weather could breathe new life into the junta’s efforts to turn the tide in the Myanmar civil war.

Geopolitical Risks of a PLA Taiwan Blockade

cc US Navy, modified, https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/3776872/us-navy-destroyer-conducts-freedom-of-navigation-operation-in-the-south-china-s/

The prospect of a Taiwan blockade by the PLA is increasingly floated as a less costly alternative to a full-on invasion of the island, but any blockade involves its own geopolitical risks.

Gang Violence Crisis Spreads in Caribbean

cc Jason Lawrence, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jamaica_Constabulary_Force_St._Andrews_Central_Division_BC019_Toyota_Corolla.jpg

Flush with cash from North America’s drug markets, and armed by guns smuggled from the United States, drug trafficking gangs have unleashed a wave of violence in the Caribbean.

Twilight of Naval Power? Ukraine’s Drone-Powered Black Sea Strategy

Moskva Cruiser before it was sunk in the Black Sea; cc Russia Ministry of Defence, modified, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Russian_cruiser_Moskva.jpg

Advanced militaries take note: Ukraine has blunted Russia’s considerable naval advantages in the Black Sea region, and all without a conventional navy.

NATO-Sans-Washington: Not Ready for War

cc U.S. Department of Defense, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/39955793@N07/23276439995/in/photolist-BsRQEX-2h6ktLp-28aUrRx-H1RkdU-GXYy5a-H8f56x-Na5A39-ESayYV-25N9w8h-2c6noGK-SXUJ4t-QoH3Wi-GDRmYJ-p3krCL-26ZcxjF-GKxbvv-EokbtN-2mku2RW-Yqa3PZ-2hFcdsR-BkyzDg-JMNNkf-UeFS5Y-kjpPGv-p576n4-2oh8Z63-2nkioFs-tJHw1E-21ht4ws-GvFL6B-oqNWir-GZE8eB-ANcNof-GRt7Qv-SUWZKb-Fpz8Mj-GRoQKQ-tJHvYq-HocBV1-8cgPZG-2gznMr9-md1wjR-MYhHRt-u1X6Gu-u22c4M-G9gebf-HocCdf-KUMFYZ-EDfq1F-tJz7yM Soldiers of 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, attached to 5th Squadron, 7th Cavalry Regiment, 3rd Infantry Division, stationed at Fort Stewart, Ga., fire a round out of an M1A2 System Enhancement Package Version 2 Abrams tank down range during a field training exercise in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve at Novo Selo Training Center, Bulgaria, Nov. 17, 2015. OAR began in April 2014. It is a European Command Operation led by Army, Europe. Units supporting OAR conduct continuous enhanced multi-national ground-force training and security cooperation activities with allies and partner nations in Eastern Europe. OAR is a visible demonstration of U.S. commitment to its NATO allies. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Steven M. Colvin/Released)

Though the Ukraine war led to increased defense spending in European NATO member states, the continent remains far off from being able to credibly defend itself without assistance from Washington.

A Space Arms Race Heats Up with China and Russia

cc NOAA Satellites, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/noaasatellites/51912998332/in/photolist-2n6nFMo-9YcqMN-Zn4ZhH-kwW6fT-L98Ffk-2pBB3qD-9Y9wnV-2k8tbvu-2m8MNxi-wfmah5-Kje7V8-2mE6fw6-2jNkka8-98h4hb-khseQj-YjQfjJ-QWjLDo-khpNVV-GbMsbL-2k84n5y-EEvYjF-awVaEv-FBvcxj-2ouAtf1-2ncXSTz-Kje5hc-FvhhbN-cgrLLN-NaLxT3-KiXk8h-BSySKe-2nNWDC4-2m87wsv-fKURhz-awXT4q-JDAH39-khpPit-2gzZJwy-nxRuYc-2mdA7qh-ac78vG-26YFmVa-VgBCyT-btu7MA-DdPD7Z-khpPtZ-nFmWD9-TDq7mF-GbMrVf-RH57Sf

As satellites come to play an ever more central role in military communications, the Outer Space Treaty becomes harder to enforce, as exemplified in recent advances in space warfare in Russia and China.

Census: An Unlikely Tool of Repression in Myanmar Civil War

cc Steve Sandford (VOA), modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?limit=500&offset=0&profile=default&search=myanmar+conflict&title=Special:Search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:BGP_officer_near_a_burnt_down_house_in_Rakhine_State.jpg

Impractical as it may seem, the ruling junta in Myanmar is rolling out a census and planning to hold elections amid a raging civil war. But the effort may be hiding ulterior, more sinister motives.

China and Russia Arctic Policy Convergence? Shifting Geopolitics in the North

Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Paul F. Zukunft highlighted the important role of icebreakers to maintain defense readiness in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, enforce treaties and other laws, and provide support to facilitate the movement of goods and personnel. Here, the Coast Guard Cutter Polar Star operates off the shore of Antarctica, Jan. 16, 2017. Coast Guard photo by Chief Petty Officer David Mosley, modified, https://dod.defense.gov/OIR/gallery/igphoto/2001902896/

China and Russia Arctic policy is converging as climate change opens the region up to international shipping. And this is creating new challenges for a US defense establishment that has long taken the stability of the region for granted.

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