While it’s expected that it will be the Kurds who separate from Iraq, the real beneficiaries from a break-up of the country would be the Shia. They’re the ones who control 80 percent of the country’s oil wealth, and they would prefer not to share it with hostile neighbors.
Russia is facing the unsettling prospect of a wave of well-trained and battle-hardened foreign fighters returning to resume the insurgency in the North Caucuses.
Much has been made of the potentially destabilizing effects of foreign fighters returning from Iraq and Syria to their home countries in Central Asia. But how real is the actual threat?
President Obama’s strategy for defeating Islamic State is weak, overly ideological, and it just isn’t going to work.
Though the Saudi government may have been amenable to the rise of ISIS back when the militant group was seen as curbing Iranian influence in the region, recent developments in Iraq have likely changed a few minds in the Kingdom.