For several reasons, Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidency offers a rare chance to break the stalemate in Tehran’s relations with the West. The problem, however, is the pattern that has played out repeatedly in US foreign policy: strengthening the position of religious hardliners in Iran and derailing structural reforms. A look at recent history reveals how Washington’s policies have unintentionally driven Iran toward radicalism, preventing it from becoming a normalized state within the global order.

The first of these US policies was the destruction of diplomatic channels. It is widely acknowledged that the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement—despite Iran’s compliance with the deal for two years and 15 verified inspections—was a blatant rejection of international agreements and norms, many of which the U.S. helped to create. This wasn’t the first time U.S. policy undercut diplomacy. In 2001, Iran played a constructive role in intelligence cooperation with the U.S. in the fight against the Taliban and helped form the Afghan government during the Bonn Conference. Iran also remained neutral during the U.S. invasion of Iraq. At the time, President Khatami, a champion of dialogue with the West, led Iran, and the political structure was not yet poised to oppose him. However, George W. Bush’s infamous “Axis of Evil” speech erased years of diplomatic efforts and derailed the progress made during the Clinton-Khatami era. This led to a series of escalating confrontations, including Iran’s nuclear ambitions under Ahmadinejad, regional militarization, and the rise of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a “state within a state.”

These developments were exacerbated during Donald Trump’s presidency, who, after years of painstaking negotiations, abruptly pulled the U.S. out of the nuclear deal. This decision revived far-right elements within the Iranian regime, leading to a unified political front that suppressed opposition and pushed Iran toward 60% uranium enrichment while reducing its security commitments to the West.

Had it not been for the Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his hardline foreign minister perishing in a helicopter crash, the region could have been on the brink of a full-scale war involving the United States. Now, however, with the rise of reformists and Masoud Pezeshkian in office, there’s a new—perhaps final—opportunity to resolve the deadlock between Iran and the West. At present, two major issues remain critical: Iran’s nuclear file and the ongoing Middle East crises. These are key tests for the US diplomacy with Iran. So far, the Americans have managed to stall any reform process in Iran and have helped empower Iran’s hardliners; but the international context is different now, and Iran has more freedom than ever to act as global instability grows.

The potential return of Trump to the White House, coupled with escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing, as well as the ongoing Ukraine war and Israel’s deepening conflict in the Middle East, could make the situation even more dire. If Iran’s sanctions over its nuclear program remain unresolved, Tehran has several options, including provoking conflict between Israel and Lebanon, disrupting shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, or inviting China and Russia into the Persian Gulf by offering military bases in strategic regional waterways.

Iran’s potential role as a Trojan horse for China and Russia in the region could reshape global security and geopolitics. For the United States, now is the time to pivot away from the Middle East and focus on larger strategic and geopolitical crises. The outcome of the Ukraine war could also shift dramatically with the formalization of a security pact between Tehran and Moscow, a move that would profoundly impact the West and Europe.

Given these dynamics, the United States should seize the opportunity presented by Iran’s internal political shift. If diplomacy fails again, Iran will continue its pivot to the East, deepening ties with China and Russia—a scenario Washington cannot afford. As the sanctions regime drags on, it fuels the rise of hardliners and militarization within Iran, making future diplomacy even more difficult. Given US efforts to curb the IRGC’s influence in the region and domestically, a deal over Iran’s nuclear program could serve as a critical trust-building step. Failure to adhere to international commitments will likely force future negotiations to focus on the number of nuclear weapons Iran possesses rather than preventing their development.

If diplomacy is truly the art of negotiation and adherence to agreements, now is the time for both sides to build trust and shift from confrontation to cooperation, resolving the Middle East crisis at its root.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.

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The Saudi-Iranian agreement can clearly reflect China’s ambitions to play a significant role in the Middle East’s regional power dynamics. For decades, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been largely aligned with the US. However, with China’s involvement with Saudi Arabia and Iran, China appears to display its ability to challenge US influence in the region. Even though some may argue that China’s current influence is starting to be more tangible, Iran remains a concern. In this respect, it is not certain whether Iran will act according to China’s vision on the long-term or even in the mid-term. The latter possibility is evident concerning the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, who have launched an attack on senior Yemeni defense officials along with an attempt to assassinate the Yemeni defense minister just days from the announcement of the Saudi-Iranian agreement. In this regard, it is worth noting that the assassination attempt was made on Yemeni government officials who are strongly supported by the Saudi government, thus, leading one to question Iran’s actual intentions toward reconciliation with Saudi Arabia.

Iran’s incentives from China for executing the agreement with Saudi Arabia remain unclear. Whether increased trade, economic ties, and investments from China in times where Iran is facing global isolation and sanctions, or increased military support, it is interesting to understand how China’s incentives for Iran will unfold in the coming period. Furthermore, for China to create an equilibrium between incentivizing Iran while maintaining Saudi Arabia’s strategic security interests might produce unforeseen challenges. In this respect, the ability of China to continuously exert pressure on Iran in favor of Saudi Arabia will always be a test for China’s relationship with both sides. That said, it can be argued that China’s influence in the region may pave the way for a more pragmatic approach to Iran, which could overall undermine the GCC’s strategic interests in the long-term.

In relation to abovementioned, Iran’s nuclear ambitions also remains unclear. In the context of the China-brokered deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it is highly unlikely that Iran would give up on its nuclear ambitions, which still and will always remain a collective threat to the GCC as a whole. This can present an actual challenge for China’s influence in the region in which there is no clear path forward on Iran’s nuclear program and increased uranium enrichment levels. This issue also poses a serious threat to Israel which is, and has been, seeking to deepen its strategic relations with most countries in the GCC during the past few years, primarily Saudi Arabi and UAE, to counter Iran’s nuclear threat. The question of how Israel, and the US, will now react toward the Iranian nuclear file in light of China-brokered Saudi-Iran agreement is definitely a critical aspect to consider, as well as what role China may play in such challenge. Thus, it could eventually be the case that Iran will seek to undermine the West’s non-proliferation attempts by leveraging China’s regional influence.

Another crucial point is the relation between the Iranian government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC). The IGRC was established in 1979 with the main purpose of safeguarding Iran’s post-revolution leadership and defending against Iran’s external and internal threats. The IGRC also have a strong influence on non-state armed groups in region, including in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen – many of which groups are designated as terrorist organizations by the international community. Within Iran and in parallel to the IGRC, there is also the Iranian army which is argued to be less funded than the IGRC. However, history shows that there has been a rivalry between the two military organizations given the overlap of military responsibilities both organizations share. Furthermore, tensions have always existed between the two organizations with regards to foreign policy and internal social issues. Accordingly, in light of the Saudi-Iran agreement, it can be challenging for the Iranian leadership to ensure the peaceful coherency between both military bodies toward Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the presence of “hardline” factions within the Iranian government, including the IGRC, may make the latter have an opposing view toward the agreement. These factions could create significant political opposition should there be tensions within the Iranian government, making it more difficult for the Iranian government to fully implement the terms.

Public unrest in Iran is another factor that can have an impact on how Iran commits to its agreement with Saudi Arabia; it also presents a tough task for China to maintain the stability of Iran’s leadership. Mass protests have erupted all over Iran since September 2022 along with over 500 protesters killed and tens of thousands detained to date. How the public unrest towards Iran’s leadership continues to unfold; how it may reflect on Iran’s foreign policy towards China and the GCC; and how will China and the GCC collectively deal with the uncertainty of the internal stability of Iran – these questions will technically define the viability and success of the Saudi-Iran agreement.

Overall, the history of tensions and conflicts between Iran and the GCC runs deep, and mistrust between both sides have been high for decades. Years of proxy wars and geopolitical maneuvering have created a tense atmosphere that can be difficult to quickly overcome. It will take time and consistent efforts on both sides to rebuild trust and establish cooperative relationship built upon mutual strategic interests and the guaranteed safety of the GCC. In addition, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East remains highly volatile, with multiple ongoing conflicts and tensions across Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon – all of which involve Iran as a key player. Thus, it is possible that unforeseen events, such as a major escalation in any political conflict in the said regions and/or a new round of sanctions from the US, could change Iran’s intentions and derail the agreement before it has a chance to fully take hold.

In conclusion, while the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran represents a potential step forward in a historically tense relationship, it may yet be difficult for Iran to fully commit to the agreement. The issues of trust, domestic political opposition, regional power dynamics, and geopolitical volatility will all pose significant challenges to the agreement’s implementation, especially for the Iranian side. Furthermore, all of this presents a set of serious challenges for China, which it will have to counter if it wants to have a greater role and influence in the Middle East given that it “brokered” the deal. With consistent diplomatic efforts and a commitment to compromise between all sides, it’s possible that this agreement will pave the way for a more stable and cooperative regional stability. But time will tell.

The views expressed in this article belong to the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.

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Iranian women have taken the brunt under the regime, often forced to conform to unjust purity laws, risking harsh punishment if they don’t comply. The recent murder of Masha Amini appears to be a turning point, however, as the citizens are taking to the streets in a fury unlike previous protest movements against the regime. This time, the theocracy has lost the trust of its citizens; and the realization that it cannot arrest or execute all 84 million citizens of Iran seems to finally be setting in.

It’s no surprise that women have taken the lead in the protests, as the women’s rights situation in the country remains dire. Eight thousand honor killings are believed to have taken place from 2010 to 2014; all male perpetrators are let out with a mild reprimand by the mullahs as they view women as “male property.” In Iran under the Khomeinists, the legal age of marriage is thirteen, but cases have been reported of much younger girls being forced into marriage. Child marriages have correlated with the rising suicide rate in the country as young girls and adolescents have little way out from their abusers, who are backed by state policies. As of this year, Iran ranks 143 out of 146 in the Global Gender Gap Report.

The recent wave of protests concerns a Kurdish woman, Masha Amini, who was apprehended and later died under detention by the Iranian ‘morality police.’ Amini’s body bore signs of violence and torture: bruises on her arms and legs, and a probably head fracture. Her supposed crime was to appear out in public without a headscarf, or with her arms and legs not covered up.

The protests have taken a deadly turn as the regime turns to deadly force to quell the movement. Dozens of protestors have been killed. Thousands have been wounded, with an undisclosed number of protestors arrested, many of which risk abuse and torture in confinement. These numbers are expected to grow with each passing day, with the heaviest fighting taking place in the Kurdistan regions of Iran – where the uprisings started.

Hotbeds of regime support, such as Qom and Mashhad, have also seen the heavy protests. Throughout the country, women are taking off their hajibs and cutting their hair in front of security forces. As of September 23, protests and clashes have taken place in 139 cities and 31 provinces in Iran.

The modern legacy of Iran’s ‘cultural revolution’

The September 2022 protests are the latest manifestation of 43 years of rage toward a revolution that promised to progress the country from the shah, but instead sent the country backward several hundred years. The first sign of things to come was Khomeini’s hajib laws of 1979, which tens of thousands of Iranian women protested. Yet at the time, the mullahs could not push for stricter Islamic laws, as progressives and revolutionaries remained in the country.

This would soon change upon the launch of Iran’s ‘cultural revolution’ by Ayatollah Khomeini and his religious council, which sought to purge all Western and non-Islamic educational and cultural influences from Iranian society. All non-state media was banned, and all other mediums came under control of the state. Fatwas of execution were issued against all progressives and leftists—many of whom actually took part in helping put Khomeini in power. The title ‘Supreme Leader’ now became solidified as Khomeini and his hardliners took undisputed control over Iran.

For several decades following the cultural revolution, the mullahs solidified their power over the country, deputizing religious police and giving freedom to the Basij to execute orders against civilians, especially women who did not adhere to the doctrine. Nonetheless, despite lack of freedom of media and education, Iran’s youth has grown more progressive over time, setting the stage for the various protests of the previous decade.

The 2011-2012 wave of protests started with a ‘day of rage’ over election corruption and poor human rights; but these were firmly put down by the regime. The 2017-2021 wave stemmed primarily from a mix of factors: corruption, rising inflation, the growing authoritarianism of Ayatollah Khamenei, and unjust personal morality laws. These protests drew the most brutal response through to present day; moreover, Tehran shut down social media during the crackdowns, effectively cutting off the primary way through which political movements were organizing and spreading news about the regime. 1,500 Iranian civilians lost their lives across the country and though regime hardliners eventually put down the protests, they did not kill the political and economic factors that continue to bubble under the surface in Iranian society.

Regime emboldened amid unrest

The Islamic Republic has also felt relatively secure amid State Department policies attempting to keep the Iranian Nuclear Deal, also known as JCPOA, intact. As the world has focused on stopping Russian aggression in Europe, Tehran has pushed the limits of what the West is willing to accept, such as switching off IAEA cameras, hiring mercenaries through the IRGC to target dissidents internationally, and plotting the murder of Israelis in Turkey.

President Ebrahim Raisi – the so-called “butcher of Tehran” – has a reputation that strikes fear and rage into Iranian activists. He once served on the religious prosecution committee, nicknamed the “death committee,” due to its lack of due process for cases. Raisi was one of four religious authorities who oversaw the execution of thousands when Khomeini solidified his rule during the cultural revolution and Iran-Iraq War. Under his watch, leftists, separatists, LGBTQ, dissidents, and educators following a pro-Western curriculum were either publicly hung or shot. The hardline president has not backed down from these principles that gave him power, and this is precisely one of the reasons why the situation in the country is spiraling out of control.

Looking ahead

While Iranians continue to resist the regime, many have noted that this is not a foreign-instigated intervention nor are they asking for any type of military intervention from the West. Various Iranian activists are asking for Khamenei’s government to be isolated and sanctioned. Such pressure could produce real effects, especially as Iran’s primary allies in Syria and Russia are currently enveloped in blowback from their own geopolitical miscalculations.

Though the odds of a revolutionary triumph remain small, they are not zero. A growing progressive population fed up with corruption, hardline rule, and periodic crackdowns cannot be fully discounted, as the Romanian Revolution of 1989 reminds us. If an unlikely success is in the cards, it could be because these protests – unlike previous examples – are managing to bring together a diverse coalition of ethnic groups striving for a common cause: Christians, Shiite Muslims, Sunni Muslims, Kurds, Jews, Azeris, Armenians, and Assyrians to name some of them.

The views expressed in this article belong to the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com

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The protests broke out after the state removed subsidies for imported wheat and other foods, causing immediate price hikes of up to 300% on various flour-based staples along with chicken, eggs, and milk.

The removal of subsidies comes amid a slew of mounting internal and external pressures facing the Iranian government. Foremost among them is the impact of the Ukraine war on key food staples. The global market in sunflower oil, for example, is about half-supplied by Ukraine, with another 25% originating in now sanction-hit Russia. Iran imports about half of its cooking oil from Ukraine. Bread prices have been similarly impacted: Ukraine is the world’s sixth-largest wheat exporter, accounting for around 10% of the global market, and global prices have nearly doubled since Russia invaded in late February.

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June 21 – Ethiopia parliamentary election.

June 22 – Brazil central bank minutes release.

June 22 – US existing home sales for May.

June 22 – Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell testifies on economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee, including a question-answer session. The Fed made its long-expected hawkish pivot last week, shifting forward economic projections that had previously seen no rate increases until 2024. The latest dot plot sees at least two hikes in 2023. Markets will be monitoring Powell’s testimony for signs of a taper in the Fed’s asset purchasing program. Despite the tonal shift on interest rates, last week’s meeting made no mention of the QE, maintaining a rate of $120 billion in monthly purchases.

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The leaders of China and Iran agreed on a $400 billion economic and security deal last week, establishing a 25-year roadmap for deepened cooperation.

The agreement amounts to a diplomatic and economic lifeline for Iran, which has languished for years under the weight of US sanctions. For China, it announces the rising power’s arrival in a highly strategic region, and its growing willingness to engage directly in regional politics.

Does the China-Iran deal mark the beginning of the end of US hegemony in the Middle East, or is this another case of a moonshot investment accord whose projects never actually see the light of day?

The post Middle East Gamechanger? Gauging the China-Iran Deal appeared first on Geopolitical Monitor.

Since the establishment of this dictatorial regime, millions of Iranian citizens have escaped the homeland or have been tortured and executed without any semblance of due process. Further, their families have been harassed, and their properties have been confiscated. Criticism of the terrorist government is unlawful, and anyone who has dared to oppose the Islamic regime has been arrested and held in prison or summarily tried and executed under vague charges. Each year thousands of Iranians are executed by the Islamic regime.  Even pregnant women and young boys and girls have not been spared from the wrath of the Islamic revolutionary courts and firing squads. Presently over a million men, women, and children are in prison today in Iran without having been charged with a crime or given the right to defend themselves.

Those who question the views of governing clergies are labeled as enemies of Islam with links to the “Great Satan” (referring to America).  In recent years, under the supposed “moderate” era of Islamic President Hassan Rouhani, there have been numerous dissidents, writers, journalists, publishers and even poets that have been arrested, tortured, condemned, and many found dead on false charges that would be the equivalent of merely expressing opinions. Further, in the name of purification of the country of Western ideas, libraries have been closed and millions of books have been destroyed and burned. Museums have been closed, and centuries of art and national heritage of Iranians have been pillaged and looted.

Clergy Hassan Rouhani believes, and said that “execution is the enforcement of God’s commandment and laws of the land that belongs to the people.” While in office, he argues that the death penalty is the key to maintaining law and order.  Shamefully, the Islamic regime has executed more people per capita than any other country in the world, and carries out more total executions than any other country except China.

Now, the year 2020 definitely was a year of sadness and sorrow, as the last 41 years have been, due to the loss of many of the best human beings who had dedicated their entire lives to hope and to the freedom of their country Iran, which has lived through years of oppression. This oppression is imposed by a theocracy which has committed unspeakable crimes against those voicing their desires for a free, democratic and secular Iran. The Islamic regime has taken this noble Iranian nation into the middle ages, creating some of the most medieval laws and implementing them against its citizens in the most vicious manner. Stoning men and women, cutting off their fingers, torturing innocent people for their opinion, incarcerating religious minorities on fabricated charges, imprisoning Iranian youth for aspiring to their very basic human rights, and employing vigilantes to murder their opponents. The Islamic regime creates an atmosphere of fear and intimidation where people cannot trust one another. In brief, in the name of religion, the clergymen in Iran have created a society where sadness and despair has replaced hope and optimism.

The Islamic clergies have also stepped up the repression of religious minorities in the past year, which resulted in the arrest of many Iranians in different parts of the country. As usual, the clergies have accused them of spying for America and Israel. The Iranian people not only have endured years of oppression under the rule of theocracy but have been isolated throughout the world as a result.

The clerical regime has failed to cope with double-digit unemployment and high inflation during the current sanctions time. Before the so-called revolution in 1979, the U.S. dollar was readily available and was worth about 70 Iranian rials.  But after the so-called revolution, the value of the rial gradually started to drop. By the year 2000, the exchange rate had hit over 5,000 rials to a dollar.  The rate further dropped to 38,000 rials to a dollar in 2013, with the start of the first sanction period. Presently, the rate varies from 25,000 to 30,000 rials, but the banks, as well as all places for purchase of the US dollar, are under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Although Iran has been rich in natural resources, regretfully, the Iranian people remain destitute with no liberty. It is known that Iran sits on top of a huge volume of oil and gas, with huge income from the petroleum industry before the international sanctions were imposed. The enormous loss of investment in the public sector undermines the Iranian nation’s rights to health and necessities. The obvious reason is that the corrupt Islamic regime’s clergy and their officials siphon billions and billions from public coffers continuously. Even under sanctions, the priority for the clergy is sending money to terrorist groups around the world.

Therefore, economically, the Iranian people are suffering and witness that the country is in deep ruins. The vast national resources of the country have been depleted and disappeared mainly due to mismanagement and corruption by Islamic regime officials. Further, the general standard of living in the country also has continuously deteriorated so rapidly and so profoundly. The burden of course has fallen most heavily on the middle class, if any is still remaining, and obviously on the lower class that makes up the majority of the Iranian population presently. Today, the large majority of people are under the poverty line, and at least one third of the population is desperate for one decent meal per day.  Deplorably, under the Islamic regime not only has freedom been lost, but the very high majority of Iranians are deprived economically.

The attitude of the Islamic regime regarding the status of women is an instance of gross and systematic inhumanities inflicted on the people of Iran. Women have suffered the loss of the rights they had under the monarchical regime. The ancient institutions of polygamy and temporary marriages were re-established 42 years ago. Under the Pahlavi monarchical governments prior to the so-called Islamic revolution, Iranian women were free and equal with men in every respect.  Many held high-level public positions such as legislative, ministerial, and executive posts in the government. Many thousands of female Iranians were also judges, journalists, and university professors. Unfortunately, within the past 42 years they have all been discharged. The clerical authorities in the Islamic regime forbid women from holding these positions because, according to them, the specific duty of women is to mate and bear children.

Regretfully, 42 years ago, with the assistance and desire of some foreign governments, a stone-age Islamic regime came to power in Iran. For the past 42 years, the excesses of the clergy and dictators have established that the Islamic regime is the most hated government of all time, which is trying to sustain a way of life based on intimidation through the use of terror and fanaticism.  But, today, a very great majority of Iranian people are fed up with the backward, scowling, corrupt, terrorist, and prejudicial clerics, who have robbed their country and have killed innumerable of their countrymen and women. The Iranian people, especially the youth of Iran, are at the forefront of a current heroic struggle – the struggle to bring love and harmony back to this deprived nation. They are sacrificing their lives to establish once again the freedom and democracy that they had during the monarchy in Iran.

Iranians believe that the time has come for the world, especially for democratic countries, to officially acknowledge that no real democracy can emerge in Iran in the structure of such an institution belonging to the Dark Ages of human history. Any contrary affirmation is nothing but a denial of the facts and a rejection of the legacy of great philosophies. Iranians declare that the current European economic policies toward the Islamic regime in Iran only wind up intensifying the oppression of the Iranian people, and suggest that by adopting a more long-term policy on backing the Iranian secular and democratic movement, Europe will have much more to gain than to lose as Iranians will become masters of their own national assets and policy.

However, unfortunately, the Iranian nation has never been given the international support, especially by European countries, to be able to translate their plight into an all-consuming movement against this theocracy. The clergy regime’s periodic defiant ballistic missile tests, which are definitely a violation of the United Nations Resolution #1929, are ignored, especially by the European Union.

Further, America and the European Union should notice that the clergy regime in recent years has resorted to the sale and parceling of Iranian land, natural resources, ports, waterways, and so on to non-friendly and non-democratic countries.  In June 2020, the clerical regime and China drafted a comprehensive “strategic partnership” for 25 years, which ostensibly covers bilateral cooperation, political, economic, and cultural spheres. But China’s main interest is in Iran’s oil and gas in southern Iran and the availability of the Persian Gulf.  On the other hand, Russia, having established ties with the regime, now has total control of the Caspian Sea, as well as the oil and gas in southern Iran. In clear terms, Iranians’ shares of the Caspian Sea were given to Russia, and the Persian Gulf to China. In July 2020 the Islamic regime’s ambassador to Russia called on Moscow and Beijing to unite with Tehran in an anti-U.S. sanctions club to resist pressure from America, all as an effort by the clergy to hold their power in the country. Of course, it is very clear that the Iranian nation never accepted the Caspian Sea treaties with Russia and the quarter-of-a-century treaty with China.

Internally, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is essentially the owner of the most lucrative parts of the Iranian industry, including the country’s major source of income, the oil and gas industry. IRGC is the only power structure of the Islamic regime that answers to no one and sees itself as the only defender of the Islamic ideology and only organization to protect the so-called Islamic revolution. The military entity of the IRGC is called the Quds force, which is in charge of advising Shiite militia groups and carries out terrorism support activities in foreign countries including Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Further, “Khatam al Anbia” is the name for the business part of the IRGC that produces income. Khatam al Anbia owns and controls major parts of the country’s economy.

The gift of the Islamic regime to the world has been terror – terror for the sake of the madmen who have made a mockery out of everything civilized and humane. The clergy’s regime was established for the purpose of destruction and genocide, a regime in which persecution and execution are everyday business, where terrorists train to murder innocent people.

Therefore, what should the U.S. and the world’s free nations be doing about all this? Washington and its allies ought to be paying far more attention to the groups of Iranian dissenters, the modernists and democrats who have been forced underground or into exile, rather than demoralizing the growing secular opposition by appearing to give in to the Islamic regime’s fabricated diplomacy. The American president and his administration should continue to build pressure and leverage on the clerical regime of Iran, primarily to address the regime’s human rights abuses and corruption, and also the regime’s proxies in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. The free world can seek the condemnation of the bloody Islamic regime as an illegal government, and thus aid the Iranian nation in their pursuit of change. Specifically, the European countries can put an end to the fruitless negotiations and political backing that sustain the Islamic dictators’ reign of terror.  They can help the Iranian people to rid their nation of this murderous calamity and once again gain a respectable position in the world community. Therefore, the democratic world should be advocating the overthrow of the Islamic regime in Iran.

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com or any institutions with which the authors are associated.

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The UAE-Bahrain bloc has angered a large number of ordinary Arabs across the world, triggering protests in Palestine and several other countries. The two states, joined by Sudan which also announced its intention to normalize relations with Israel, attempted to sidestep any accusations of trying to negotiate for the Palestinians. Instead, their focus was said to be strictly on bilateral issues such as aviation, economic and trade relations, investment (known as the Abraham Fund), and taxation with Israel.

This year, the Trump administration played its role with exceptional skill. Trump stated that at least five countries want to join the normalization agreements with Israel. Although Trump did not mention these countries by name, there is some speculation that they may include Mauritania, Oman, and Saudi Arabia.

Yet these prospects will now depend on Joe Biden’s foreign policy.

Will Joe Biden swing back to Obama-era US policy in the Middle East?

As a two-term vice president under President Barack Obama, Joe Biden played a leading role in the US’s often contradictory policies concerning in the Middle East. Biden has said he plans to pursue drastically different positions from President Donald Trump, pledging to reassess US-Saudi relations. For one, the former vice president has promised tougher scrutiny of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record.

Biden also has signaled that, if he wins, his administration would reassess US relations with Iran. He plans to re-enter the Iran nuclear deal and remove unilateral sanctions imposed by the Trump administration. This would obviously resonate in US relations with Israel, as détente with Iran is the total opposite of Netanyahu’s view that a preventive strike on Iranian nuclear sites is the best of bad options. For his part, Biden has been a strong supporter of Israel throughout his political career, but he has also promised to place “constant pressure” on Israel to resolve its conflicts. He has also come out against Israeli government plans to annex the West Bank, arguing such a move would “choke off any hope for peace.”

Will Biden’s victory jeopardize Israel’s normalization deals with Arab states?

The Abraham Accords are potentially more significant than existing Israeli peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan. The agreements hold out the promise for reduced military tensions in the region, despite their leaving the Palestinian issue unresolved. They also have the potential to produce a much-needed boost in economic growth.

The seventh paragraph of the peace treaty signed by Israel and the United Arab Emirates further to the Abraham Accords states the following: “the Parties stand ready to join with the United States to develop and launch a ‘Strategic Agenda for the Middle East’ in order to expand regional diplomatic, trade, stability and other cooperation.”

In an oblique way, Biden has praised Trump for the Israel-UAE deal. His campaign states that Biden will “urge Arab states to move beyond quiet talks and take bolder steps toward normalization with Israel.” A Biden foreign policy adviser told The Times of Israel that Saudi Arabia in particular, might be more inclined to agree to normalize relations with Israel during a Biden presidency in order to improve its standing with the Democratic Party.

The warm Arab-Israeli relationships born of the Abraham Accords could ultimately benefit the Palestinian cause, but the Palestinians will need to engage as well. The Biden administration can also be expected to reverse its predecessor’s destructive cutoff of diplomatic ties with the Palestinian Authority. Engaged one more with both sides of the divide, Biden will be well-placed to support wider peacebuilding efforts in the region.

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com or any institutions with which the authors are associated.

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First introduced in 2015, the UN arms embargo on Iran has recently expired, meaning that the Islamic Republic is now able to buy and sell military hardware and technologies. While there is concern that this will allow Iran to modernize its armed forces and export its weaponry to anti-US actors in exchange of much-needed cash, a combination of political and economic factors makes it difficult for Iran to access the global defense market as either a customer or as a supplier. Nevertheless, some powers may now engage in arms trade with Iran, with potential impacts for diplomatic relations in the Middle East for years to come.

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The post-World War II global order, which was set up to defy the Soviet Union, has changed and the era of American neo-isolationism begun. Fortunately, the United States has the necessary tools to cross over to this era, mainly its geography, maritime supremacy, and industrial capacity. However, other nations are vulnerable to American isolationism, particularly those which depend on the U.S. for maritime security and technological advancement. With only days left until the 2020 presidential election, both parties in the U.S. are headed into a new approach and they both share a deep concern about dependence on China’s manufacturing goods. This means that regardless of the outcome of the election, there will be a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy toward China, and the global pandemic only sped up the inevitability of this shift.

India, Japan, and Australia have enormous interest in participating in a dialogue with the U.S. to counter China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. This was apparent in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or “Quad” with the United States. While the U.S. is the only country to recognize China as an “adversary” in its National Security Strategy, the resurrection of the Quad confirms the other participants’ changing stances. Even Russia, eager to raise its geopolitical profile in South Asia and to lead Eurasian affairs, senses that it should prevent China from taking over the Eurasia region, as it balances a tenuous relationship between India and China.

In Europe, although not a united front, distrust toward China is also growing. Despite the need to expand trade with China, the latest virtual EU-China summit between Xi Jinping and EU officials failed to produce a desirable outcome, including an expected investment agreement. This failure is due to several factors, including Beijing’s handling of the pandemic, its economic practices, and human rights issues related to Hong Kong. It appears that Europe’s demands on China are hardening.

The United States and Europe disagree on several strategic geopolitical issues, but they can work to resolve them. The United States’ insistence on ending the Nord Stream is based on concerns that Europe’s reliance on Russia’s imported gas will move Europe further into Russia’s orbit; this is while many European countries are reluctant to commit to defense spending and strengthening the NATO alliance. These are the areas that must be improved through vigorous diplomacy.

Recently, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) rejected a U.S. resolution to extend a global arms embargo on Iran to curb Iran’s access to advanced weapons systems through the snapback process under UNSCR 2231. Iran is an important piece of the puzzle in dealing with China. The U.N.’s opposition to U.S. efforts highlights the failure of Washington’s coalition-building and diplomatic capacity to curb Iran’s contentious actions. It also underscores the absence of a viable Iran strategy to remedy the flaws of the counter-proliferation agreement known as the JCPOA. A unilateral U.S. withdrawal from the agreement without a workable replacement led to the diplomatic failure at the UNSC. The Trump administration made it clear that it did not think that the JCPOA fulfilled its counter-proliferation expectations and felt the need to renegotiate considering Iran’s post-deal behavior. This may be the case for any upcoming administration, considering regional uncertainty due to Iran’s behavior and the shortcomings of the agreement.

The fallout at UNSC was unfortunate, but it may be a just “bump in the road” in the trans-Atlantic alliance, as it signifies the importance of traditional relationships which, if undermined, can jeopardize global security. Meanwhile, the reactions of Germany, France, and the UK to Iran’s brutal execution of Navid Afkari and the hostage taking of dual-nationals appeared as a change of attitude toward the Iranian regime. This is a positive change in Europe’s stance that will provide an opportunity for cooperation between the U.S. and Europe to stand against the Islamic Republic’s human rights violations. Other areas of collaboration include maritime security, cyber security, and more vigorous intelligence-sharing.

Iran’s Supreme Leader has openly expressed enthusiasm for the “Turning East rather than West” political doctrine. Understanding this mindset, it is not strange to see why Iran may commit to a major 25-year economic, energy, and security agreement with China. If finalized, the agreement would extend China’s naval and intelligence access to the Persian Gulf, bring China closer to NATO and U.S. forces in the region, and could replace India as the primary developer of the strategic Chabahar Port. China is already building an extended area of influence through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor which is a pillar of the Belt and Road Initiative. This ambitious project will allow China direct access to Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea. Additionally, the completion of the Gwadar–Kashgar pipeline project will reduce China’s dependence on the Strait of Malacca. Such access would ensure that the vital flow of energy to China will not be disrupted and is intended to challenge the U.S. dominance in the region.

China’s move to dominate the Middle East and Eurasia is only one portion of the shifting geopolitics of the world. Considering Russia’s geopolitical position and its need to secure energy markets, Europe does not see a serious conflict with Russia on the horizon. However, Russia’s encroachments in Eastern Europe make the NATO alliance a tie that Europe cannot see weakened. As seen recently, Washington agreed to participate in the “Three Seas Initiative” to establish an economic, infrastructure, and digital belt around Central and Eastern Europe, create a “north-south” energy and infrastructure corridor in the region, and ultimately reduce the region’s dependence on Russian energy imports.

Despite the PRC’s numerous problems, including demography, geography, export-led economy, and lack of resources, to deal with the challenges presented by China, U.S. leadership must be restored, and a resilient trans-Atlantic alliance be built. Just as China’s intention to dominate the Himalayas will be countered, India’s relationship with Iran and the development of Chabahar Port is crucial in reaching peace and stability in Afghanistan. More importantly, the next U.S. administration must have a clearly defined policy toward Iran and work vigorously with its allies to achieve set goals. Such a firm alliance will be critical to ensure global stability. Without building a viable international coalition, it will not be possible for Western democracies to get the Chinese government to agree to any concrete changes and adhere to rules-based international order, just as it will not be possible to confront the complex global security challenges that lie in wait in the future.

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com or any institutions with which the authors are associated.

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