The war in Ethiopia started on November 4th 2020, when the TPLF’s armed wing, the TDF attacked the Northern Command of the central Ethiopian government. The TPLF, who ruled Ethiopia for close to three decades after they expelled the communist Mengistu Regime, led the country during a period of just as much corruption, suppression of freedom of speech, and costly military ventures as their predecessor. Abiy Ahmed, a former Lt Col with combat experience in the Horn of Africa and Rwanda, mobilized the northern forces and Eritrean military, as the country to this day still shares close cultural ties with Ethiopia and also faced border incursions by the TPLF. Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize for settling decades-long major border disputes with Eritrea. After arresting high-value TPLF leaders and OLA extremists during the early phases of the war, Abiy’s popularity soared; meanwhile, there were needs of the country that were not met or implemented under his rule, that would later cost tens of thousands of lives and valuable resources.

Abiy Ahmed has ordered scorched-earth tactics to deal with TPLF militias, but in return, hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans have suffered. Reports of sexual assault, massacres from the ENDF, arrests of civil activists, growing famine due to the blockade by the government and Eritrea, and bombing of refugee camps have been reported since the start of the conflict.

As government forces became encircled and thousands were taken prisoners by the TPLF militias, they pushed south with goals of entering the capital of Addis Ababa. To do this, they would have to go through the Amhara region, which reignited longstanding ethnic tensions dating back to the 70s. For close to six months from June 2021, there were numerous reports of TPLF forces executing and sexually assaulting Amharas and Afars, along with cultural damage during the occupation.

Announcing a major government counteroffensive in lieu of TPLF and OLA advances towards the capital, Abiy’s popularity skyrocketed. The counteroffensive took place in the Amhara region, where many Amharas already held a negative view of the Abiy government. For months, the Amhara Special Forces and Fano held off TPLF forces with little government support. Many weapons the Amhara militias used came from dead TPLF soldiers or older weaponry from households as the government had not supplied them and refused to arm them. The counteroffensive in the Amhara region was successful, but came with its own controversy. Numerous reports of war crimes by fleeing TPLF forces were documented along with indiscriminate drone strikes by the Ethiopia government. The drone used were infamous TB2s, a Turkish produced Bayraktar that has changed the face of warfare in Syria, Libya, and Karabakh.

After consolidating the Amhara and Afar regions during the reconquest, Abiy Ahmed developed a cult of personality, despite continuous ongoing issues in the country. There have been near daily massacres of Amhara in the Oromia region, Abiy’s backyard, with little attention given. Tigrayans still lack adequate medical aid. The Afar regions still suffer from cross regional attacks by the TPLF and the Amhara region still requires billions in aid to help rebuild the war-battered province. There have also been mass arrests of Amhara activists recently, which led to global protests with the hashtag #IAmFano. Though Abiy has gained prominence around the African and “anti-imperialist” community, much of the Ethiopian population is very wary of his motives and intentions.

Despite the detentions of activists across the country and a media blackout, there is little progress or prominence for democratic institutions under PM Ahmed, along with growing homelessness and inflation. The only sign of progress is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which itself has caused major ire with Egypt. As international monitors and local journalists continue to count the dead from the civil war, it remains clear that no side has won. The status quo has remained, which reflects the scars of the mid-70s period, where the only winners are the corrupted leaders of post-monarchy Ethiopia, who continue to benefit while the people suffer.

The views expressed in this article belong to the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com

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A previous situation report from mid-October detailed how Addis Ababa hoped to push its advantage in military hardware (notably lethal drones), essential supplies, and morale by launching a renewed campaign to bring the northern region of Tigray back under central government control.

That campaign is now in total disarray. Not only does Tigray remain in the hands of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its allies, but the government has actually ceded territory since the offensive began.

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Ethiopia has launched a major military offensive in Tigray according to unconfirmed reports from rebels in the northern region.

The operation, which is said to involve air and ground attacks across a broad front, comes just two years removed from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed winning the Nobel Peace Prize for efforts to foster peaceful reconciliation among Ethiopia’s diverse peoples and achieve a long-term peace with neighboring Eritrea. The interim has not been kind to Abiy’s reputation as a peacemaker: Tigray has been wracked by intense fighting, ‘clear war crimes,’ and forced migration, some of which was perpetrated by Ethiopia’s erstwhile enemy, Eritrea.

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June 21 – Ethiopia parliamentary election.

June 22 – Brazil central bank minutes release.

June 22 – US existing home sales for May.

June 22 – Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell testifies on economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee, including a question-answer session. The Fed made its long-expected hawkish pivot last week, shifting forward economic projections that had previously seen no rate increases until 2024. The latest dot plot sees at least two hikes in 2023. Markets will be monitoring Powell’s testimony for signs of a taper in the Fed’s asset purchasing program. Despite the tonal shift on interest rates, last week’s meeting made no mention of the QE, maintaining a rate of $120 billion in monthly purchases.

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Summary

Ethiopia may soon find itself at a social and geopolitical turning point. Its population is expanding at a remarkable rate of 2.85%, and already amounts to over 100 million people (64% of which are under 24). The country experienced double-digit economic growth during the 2000s and is still developing at a fast pace, with a projected GDP increase of 8.5% in 2018. Nevertheless, its economy remains based on traditional agriculture; large swathes of its inhabitants live in poverty (30% in 2014) and are threatened by famines. Ethiopia’s population is also heavily fragmented in ethnic terms, and during the past year it has suffered a high degree of socio-political turmoil. But most importantly, especially in the long term, it is one of the countries more exposed to the effects of climate change. As a result of this combination of economic, social, and environmental factors, Ethiopia is likely to become a “geopolitical time bomb” in the medium-to-long term, with the potential for a deep and lasting impact on Eastern Africa and Europe.

Impact

To understand how this is possible, it is best to start from the events that are now shaking the country. Last week, Hailemariam Desalegn, leader of the ruling government coalition (the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, known as EPRDF) announced his decision to resign as prime minister. He declared that his decision (alongside the release of hundreds of prisoners in the previous weeks, many of whom are political opponents) was aimed at calming a series of violent protests that were taking place all over Ethiopia. One day later, a country-wide state of emergency was declared, and it is yet unknown how long it will last.

This kind of situation is not new for the country. Socio-political upheaval has been affecting Ethiopia over the past three years, causing the deaths of hundreds of people. The solution adopted by the government has generally been the same: release prisoners and declare a state of emergency. As a matter of fact, a 10-month-long period of national emergency ended last year without actually tackling the conditions at the base of popular unrest. There’s no reason to believe that this recent announcement will be any different.

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Violent clashes have been reported in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region since early November. According to the central government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the violence broke out when forces affiliated to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked a military base, thus prompting the executive to launch a military operation in the region. Fighting has been raging since then, raising fears that Ethiopia – a country with pronounced and longstanding sectarian cleavages – may plunge into civil war.

Far from being a purely local problem, the destabilization of Ethiopia would have serious consequences on the Horn of Africa and beyond, especially if a state of prolonged conflict and economic downturn results in a new surge of Europe-bound migrants.

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The renewed bullish attitude toward Ethiopia’s growth is the product of a number of early and swift reforms spearheaded by the Ahmed government. Ahmed’s popularity abroad has sparked an unprecedented level of optimism for Ethiopia, known colloquially as “Abiymania.” Perhaps the most noteworthy initiative for foreign investors thus far includes privatization efforts of state-owned entities operating in key industries, including telecommunications, energy, and aviation.

With such precious infrastructure in the state’s grip, coupled with a regulatory regime laden with red-tape, the climate for entrepreneurship has ebbed. The unemployment rate stands at 19%, with youth unemployment accounting for half of that figure. With the population growing at nearly 2.5% annually, and over 40% of the population comprising of Ethiopians under the age of 15, job creation remains imperative if Ethiopia is to attain a demographic dividend. Hence, recent efforts by Ahmed’s government to boost entrepreneurship are specifically aimed at stemming the country’s chronic brain drain and retaining trained professionals who, in the absence of meaningful reform, would have sought opportunities abroad.

Such optimism has renewed hopes that the Ethiopian economy can continue along the trajectory of industrialization and cull the country’s historical reliance on the agricultural sector, which employs nearly 70% of the country’s workforce. Ethiopia’s textile and garment industry in particular has attracted corporate investment from global brands such as H&M and Calvin Klein. The ongoing US-China trade dispute could bode well for Ethiopia, as more textile MNCs seek to shift their supply chains outside of China. Prior reform efforts to diversify the economy faltered as the result of an unwavering tradition of statist intervention that entrenched state-owned monopolies in critical sectors, ranging from banking to telecommunications.

Ethio Telecom, which has retained a complete monopoly of the industry, is expected to be partially sold or perhaps forced to compete with new foreign entrants. Such an opportunity will provide investors with the chance to enter a burgeoning market that presently boasts 66 million customers, with FDI expected to aid in the shoring up of Ethiopia’s depleting foreign currency reserves. Similarly, the decision to privatize Ethiopian Airlines, oft-cited as the most successful national airline in Africa, contributes to Ahmed’s vision of bolstering Ethiopia’s standing as a major air-based transit hub, as demand for passenger travel and cargo transport increases across the continent.

The sentiments of foreign investors are further informed by the remarkable growth of the Ethiopian economy at-large, with the IMF projecting GDP to grow by 8.5% during the 2018-2019 fiscal year. While the prospects of economic liberalization, buoyed by Ahmed’s proclivity for privatization, has excited investors, so too has Ethiopia’s steadfast commitment to funding infrastructure projects and securing access to ports. In an effort to alleviate the landlocked country’s overreliance on maritime trade via the port of Djibouti, Ahmed’s government has clinched deals that provide Ethiopia with equity stakes or access through ports and facilities in Sudan, Kenya, and Somaliland. Ahmed’s intrigue with diplomacy has led to roles that include playing peacemaker in Sudan and mediating an ongoing maritime border dispute between Kenya and Somalia

In spite of such victories and initiatives, Ahmed’s path toward modernizing Ethiopia has not been free of complications. A landmark peace deal inked last year between Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea was designed to forge economic cooperation between the countries. However, implementation of the accords has stalled and uncertainty over whether the deal will survive has thwarted Ethiopian benefits, which included ending a decades-long border conflict and gaining access to Eritrean ports.

Other Ahmed-led initiatives, such as the freeing of thousands of political prisoners, earned the charismatic leader media attention and international goodwill. Ahmed’s efforts to combat graft and restructure the country’s security apparatus have fueled opposition within military ranks. An assassination attempt last June, coupled with the recent coup attempt that resulted in the death of the pro-Ahmed army chief, portends escalating conflict. The breakneck speed of reforms undertaken by Ahmed now seems poised to sow discord among Ethiopia’s fragile multiethnic society. Given that the ringleader of the recent coup attempt, General Asamnew Tsige, was a freed prisoner who had his military rank reinstated by Ahmed, there exists an argument that the prime minister has become a victim of his own peacebuilding gestures.

The attempted coup and uptick in ethnic violence has compelled the government to retract some reforms. In a bid to quell growing tensions, the government resorted to familiar tactics, such as ordering Ethio Telecom to shutdown internet and text messaging services across the country. That Ahmed’s government is dependent upon the continued unification of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, a coalition of 4 ethnic-based parties, is a fact not lost on observers. Investors and analysts alike will pay close attention to next year’s election, which may face delays due to burgeoning ethnic conflict that has uprooted families and seen the sprouting of ethnically-aligned militias, developments that have earned the country comparisons to Balkanization.

The next few months will be Ahmed’s biggest test yet. It remains to be seen whether the optimism of foreign investors will sour, given recent events. The country’s internal strife remains fluid, but the government’s recent about-face is a tacit recognition of the need to tame liberalization. With Ethiopia’s future hanging in the balance, Ahmed’s ability to promote unity and curtail opposing factions within the political and military establishment will be integral to the country’s development efforts.

Arman Sidhu is an American educator and political writer based in Phoenix, Arizona. His work has previously appeared in The Diplomat, Mic, Economic & Political Weekly, openDemocracy, and the Foreign Policy Journal, among others.

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Summary

As a large and populated country with a fast-growing economy, Ethiopia plays an important role in the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. Two recent moves clearly signal its willingness to further increase its regional influence: first, the unprecedented offer to accept a negotiated settlement on the longstanding dispute with neighboring Eritrea; second, its declared intention to develop a Navy in spite of its status as a landlocked state. Taken together, this newly assertive foreign policy will not be an easy path, because Ethiopia’s ambitions will be tempered by domestic challenges and the difficult neighborhood it finds itself in.

Background

Ethiopia is navigating a delicate moment. Its economy is growing fast, with a projected growth rate of 8.5% this year, one of the best in Africa. It is gradually opening its markets and reforming its governance system to attract foreign investments and build new infrastructure. Yet the country Is still held back by enormous social problems. Millions remain trapped in poverty, and revenue inequality is stark. Moreover, its society is fragmented into numerous ethnic groups, and the relations between them are often strained due to an inequal distribution of wealth and political power. Finally, Ethiopia is very exposed to the deleterious effects of climate change, and this will have serious negative impacts on the country’s food security, employment, and its sanitary situation. This combination of destabilizing factors was explored further in one of my previous articles: Ethiopia, a Geopolitical Time Bomb in the Making.

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Women and children are among those fleeing after the Ethiopian military opened fire on civilians near Moyale.

More than 5,000 Ethiopians have fled their homes and crossed the Kenyan border. The exodus comes after the Ethiopian military “mistakenly” shot nine civilians near the border town of Moyale.

According to Reuters, soldiers were deployed to the region in search of members of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), a banned militant group. They were seeking fighters who may have been illegally entering the country across the porous Kenyan-Ethiopian border. The soldiers allegedly received false information which led them to believe the civilians were members of the OLF. They launched an attack on the group, killing nine civilians and injured 12 others.

The five soldiers responsible are in custody pending an investigation. Among them is an Ethiopian military commander.

The 5,000 refugees are the latest addition to an escalating humanitarian crisis in the region. Since March 10, the local Oromia Broadcasting Network estimates 50,000 refugees have fled Ethiopia, and tens of thousands more have been internally displaced within the country.

Protests and civil unrest in the Oromia and Amhara regions have prompted harsh military crackdowns and left several hundred civilians dead over the past two years. Simultaneously, armed conflict between the Oromo and Somali people has led to the widespread destruction of property and a rising civilian death toll. Most recently in December, 60 Somali-Ethiopians were killed in a bloody attack in the Gadulo region, according to Borkena.

Among the refugees spilling into Kenya are pregnant women, the elderly, and those with chronic illnesses. Footage from the Kenyan border shows villagers arriving nursing injuries, with few possessions. One Moyale resident told Daily Nation: “there is continued aggression and harassment, which creates fear and causes people to flee.”

In the interests of preventing a humanitarian crisis, the government must bring an end to the conflict in Oromia. Doing so will be in the economic interest of the Kenyan government. The border region between Kenya and Ethiopian is very significant for Kenya’s economic development.

Moyale sits on the border, with half of the town in Ethiopia and the other half in Kenya. There are plans to bring a railway, highway, and oil pipeline to the town to open up the region to Kenya’s Isiolo town. According to Bloomberg, the projects have a combined value of more than US$10 billion and are part of Kenya’s LAPSSET Corridor 2030 plan to establish Kenya as East Africa’s trading hub.

However, a spokesperson for the Marsabit county governor suggested that the conflict in Ethiopia could have a negative impact on these projects. He said in an interview with Bloomberg that the LAPSSET project “won’t be realised if this conflict does not subside.”

The Kenyan government will likely look for a solution as quickly as possible. In 2016, Kenya hosted 600,000 refugees from surrounding countries. At the time, the principal secretary of the Ministry of Interior told Telegraph UK that Kenya had hosted more than its fair share of refugees. This may be true, but returning refugees to their homes was not an option then and it is not an option now.

Many have had their homes destroyed, and citizens in Oromia are protesting. The government has ominously responded with a statement declaring it has run out of patience with “anti-peace elements” in the region. There is every indication that Oromia is not safe at the moment. It is Kenya’s responsibility to protect the region’s most vulnerable. Rather than directing resentment toward the refugees pouring across the border, the Kenyan government should channel its energy into pressuring the Ethiopian government to bring lasting peace to the region. With a stake in the problem, the Kenyan government should have a role in the solution.

The Ethiopian military has been instructed to “take all necessary measures to restore peace.” With the military ready to “take all measures,” there will undoubtedly be more bloodshed in Oromia and more refugees fleeing to Kenya before peace can actually be restored to Oromia.

The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the authors are theirs alone and don’t reflect any official position of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.

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Regional powerhouse Ethiopia announced on 28 March that it is extending its state of emergency by another four months, citing warnings from top officials of continued unrest in Africa’s second most populated country. The East African country, which is ruled by a coalition of parties who together form the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), is dominated by political leaders from the minority Tigrayan community. Yet ethnic Tigrayans make up just 6% of Ethiopia’s population while the country’s largest ethnic group, the Oromo people, are severely under-represented in the country’s power structures. This disparity has produced political tensions during the long tenure of the EPRDF – tensions that are only growing now that the ruling party is moving to solidify its grip on power.

The Oromo have been in a state of unrest since late 2015. At issue is the group’s economic marginalization and perceived attempts to confiscate their land for development, particularly around the capital of Addis Ababa. The situation escalated after police arrived to disperse protests at the 2016 Irreecha cultural festival and fired tear gas. The operation sparked a stampede which left at least fifty people dead. Anti-government unrest has also been reported in the northern Amhara areas, home to Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnic community. The Amhara have historically been identified with many of Ethiopia’s rulers, including the deposed former president Mengistu Haile Mariam and the last (ethnically mixed) Emperor Haile Selassie. But the community today feels marginalized by the dominance of the Tigrayans; in turn, the ruling coalition has opted for repression rather than compromise when it comes to meeting either communities’ demands for greater political, economic, and human rights.

Background

Contested electoral legitimacy. Observers have raised concerns about the legitimacy of the 2005 and 2010 elections, whose results the opposition has widely contested. In both elections, the ruling EPRDF, which has been in power since 1991 when its members succeeded in deposing the communist military junta known as the Derg, claimed to have won the polls. But the 2010 election in particular is seen as having re-established the trappings of a one-party state in Ethiopia. The present situation is particularly sensitive for the ruling coalition because the Oromo make up between 35-40% of Ethiopia’s population while the Amhara are another 27%.

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