U.S. Forces in Iraq for the Long Haul

IRAQ-US-PATROL-PULLOUT

Summary

It appears that the U.S. military under the Obama administration has not given up on the Bush-era dream of an ‘enduring’ military presence in Iraq.

Analysis

Last month, General George Casey, U.S. Army Chief of Staff, suggested that the Pentagon was prepared to leave forces in Iraq for as long as a decade, a period of time that expands well past the 2011 withdrawal envisioned by the current U.S.-Iraqi security agreement. He went on to point out that, “global trends are pushing in the wrong direction… [They] fundamentally will change how the Army works.”

Could the ‘global trends’ that General Casey spoke of refer to declining American hegemony and consequentially a fiercer global competition for oil and other strategic resources? If so, and international politics is returning to the zero sum calculations of the Cold War era, then a long term military presence in Iraq becomes a strategic necessity.

And it looks like that is the plan.

It is important to note that on both sides of the equation, it is the process of a troop withdrawal rather than the ultimate result that is most important. On the Iraqi side, American withdrawals serve as a reminder to the Iraqi people that their government is in control of its own house without risking a potentially terminal security situation.  U.S. troops are, after all, not too far away. On the American side, the process of withdrawal pacifies the domestic anti-war lobby without foregoing the geopolitical boon of a military deployment in Iraq.

Thus, we can now examine the process of U.S troop withdrawals, a process that is full of smoke and mirrors.

The U.S military claims that by June 30th, all U.S. troops will withdraw from Iraqi urban areas, in effect pulling out of the Joint Security Stations (JSS) that they co-operate with Iraqi troops. The claim has already been discredited twice over. It was discredited in an official capacity in the wake of what should have been an expected spike in terrorist attacks by groups trying to capitalize on the transition, when U.S. Brigadier General Steve Lanza admitted that a number of U.S troops are to remain in Iraqi urban areas after June 30th. The claim of a June 30th urban withdrawal was also discredited by the superficial nature of the withdrawal itself.

In the case of the Sadr City bases in Baghdad, all U.S. troops coming from the JSS that are being handed over to the Iraqis are simply going to be re-deployed into JSS Ur in northeast Baghdad, a base that has been renovated and expanded to make way for their arrival.

The U.S. military has invested over $100 million into renovating and enlarging the forward operating bases that U.S troops are being re-deployed to. Unless the U.S Army is expecting a full scale civil war, such renovations seem like a waste of resources, unless of course the Pentagon is preparing for a long-term presence in Iraq.

If troops are not being shuffled to new bases, they’re being re-branded as ‘advisors’ or ‘trainers’ to stay behind in urban areas, able to operate with Iraqi forces without risking the embarrassment of the Iraqi government. According to a recent New York Times article, these embedded advisors and trainers will number from 10,000-50,000 troops. All U.S forces in Iraq, whatever their official classification, are trained and able to fight.

As for the U.S.-Iraq security agreement itself, there are a few reasons to believe that the 2011 deadline for a total withdrawal will not be honored. According to several senior U.S officials, the agreement can legally be extended or amended at the Iraqi government’s request. It seems likely that the Iraqi government will be inclined to make such a request in the future. Iraqi Sunnis perceive the American military presence as a hedge against Shiite domination; there’s no reason to believe that this dynamic will change. Also, the spiking violence that shadows U.S. withdrawals will always serve as a handy pretense for the Iraqi government to request an extension of U.S. troop deployments. According to Iraqi Shiite legislator Qassim Daoud, given the state of the Iraqi Security Forces, the security agreement should be extended beyond 2020.

At present, U.S. troop levels in Iraq are still rather large: 130,000 servicemen based in over 320 bases, a reduction from peak levels of 160,000 and 460 respectively. Despite President Obama’s impassioned rhetoric that envisions a hard withdrawal by 2011, it remains hard to imagine that the U.S. Army will completely pull out of their incredibly expensive, extensively fortified, and geopolitically significant base infrastructure in Iraq.

Back to Top

Login

Lost your password?