FORECAST

Israel’s strategy of isolation and targeted assassinations can be expected to continue against Hezbollah and Hamas after Israel was widely attributed as being responsible for the car-bomb assassination of Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General Imad Mughniyah on February 13th in Damascus.

Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, in response to the attack declared an “open war” on Israel.

Soon thereafter, Kuwaiti and Israeli press reported that Israel is implementing a broad plan of targeted assassinations against Hezbollah and Hamas, citing statements made by members of the Israeli government and undisclosed sources.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have announced plans to gear up for a large-scale military operation in Gaza while Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit asserted the “need to target all those responsible for terrorism without asking who they are.”

In 2006 Israel responded to Hezbollah attacks and growing strength with a 33-day military campaign against Hezbollah and Southern Lebanon. Israel used its air force, cluster bombs and ground troops. Hezbollah shot rockets into Israeli border towns and engaged Israeli troops in Guerilla-style warfare.

The conflict resulted in significant civilian casualties, destruction and environmental damage. Hezbollah’s military capacity was also dealt a blow.

Hezbollah is a Lebanon-based Shi’a political party and paramilitary organization with Iranian ties. The organization first emerged during the Lebanese civil war in the 1980’s to promote the interests of Shi’a followers of Ayatollah Khomeini by seeking retribution against the Christian Kataeb Party, ending Western colonialism and implementing an Islamic government.

In addition to holding seats in Parliament, Hezbollah runs hospitals, schools and other social programs in Lebanon. Through its military arm, The Islamic Resistance, Hezbollah wages war against the Israeli forces that have occupied the South of Lebanon since the 1982 Lebanon war when Israel invaded to attack the Palestinian Liberation Organization, which was operating out of the country.

Israel, The United States and several of their allies have designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.

 

SUMMARY OF EVENTS: February 11 – February 18, 2008

WORLD

OPEC Secretary General told the Middle East Economic Digest that the organization could trade in euros instead of dollars within a decade.

While the world frets about a possible US recession, global inflation has quietly climbed to historic levels, confronting policy makers with tough choices that could end up hurting the euro and lifting Asian currencies.

NORTH AMERICA

United States

US Pentagon prosecutors are seeking the death penalty for six Guantanamo Bay detainees, charging them with planning the 9/11 attacks. The allegations come in the wake of ongoing allegations that Western Intelligence orchestrated the event.

US President George W. Bush said Thursday that he plans to veto legislation passed by the Senate to bar the CIA from using harsh interrogation methods including water boarding.

THE CARRIBEAN

Cuba

Cuba has demanded the US return Guantanamo Bay to the island nation and denounced the “war on terror” prison, where six detainees could face the death penalty.

EASTERN EUROPE

Russia

Russia possesses the relatively inexpensive technical capability to offer an appropriate response to U.S. missile defense deployment in Europe, the foreign minister told a news conference in Geneva on Tuesday.

Vladimir Putin has confirmed his intention to wield significant power as Russia’s prime minister after next month’s presidential election.

Serbia

Political tensions rose Friday ahead of Kosovo’s imminent declaration of independence from Serbia, which is fighting what it calls a serious threat.

Georgia

Tens of thousands of opposition supporters rallied in Georgia’s capital on Friday to demand electoral reforms, press freedom and the release of ‘political prisoners’ ahead of parliamentary polls in May.

THE MIDDLE EAST

Israel

The Israeli armed forces has been ordered to prepare a large-scale military operation on Gaza in an effort to stop militant rocket launches on Israeli towns, the defense minister said on Monday.

The Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet internal security service are preparing to step up assassinations against key Hamas figures in the Gaza Strip in response to the continued Qassam rocket attacks. The renewed campaign of targeted killings is not likely, at this stage, to include members of the Hamas political leadership.

Lebanon

The Lebanon-based guerilla group Hezbollah announced that the group’s Deputy Secretary General Imad Mughniyah was killed Tuesday night in a bomb blast in a residential Damascus neighborhood. It accused Israel of carrying out the assassination.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah opposition chief declared “open war” on Israel on Thursday as hundreds of thousands of government supporters filled central Beirut to remember slain ex-premier Rafiq Hariri.

Iraq

Russia has agreed to write off $12 Billon of Iraqi debt built up by former leader Saddam Hussein to buy military supplies. Russian oil company Lukoil is expected to develop Iraqi oilfields including West Qurna, one of the country’s largest.

Iran

China is interested in joining Iran and Pakistan to construct a gas pipeline for transferring Iran’s natural gas if India does not participate.

The US is pushing the European Union to increase the pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program by stopping two Iranian banks from operating on European soil.

Iran will launch its first investment banks next month as part of efforts to speed up privatization and dodge US restrictions on its banking sector.

Iran will also launch a commodities exchange for oil, petrochemicals and natural gas on February 27th, the Islamic Republic’s oil minister said on Wednesday.

SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf warned opposition parties to accept the result of Monday’s parliamentary elections and not to take to the streets if it goes against them, while guaranteeing it will be free and fair.

Pakistan’s forthcoming Parliamentary polls will be “massively rigged”, according to a purported audio recording of Attorney General Malik Qayyum.

OCEANA

East Timor

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd vowed Friday that his nation’s troops would stay in East Timor as long as needed, following assassination attempts on the president and prime minister this week.

AFRICA

Chad

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner on Tuesday hailed a resumption of the deployment of an EU peacekeeping force in Chad, a month after it was suspended due to unrest there.

Kenya

Rival factions in Kenya’s political crisis reportedly agreed Thursday to write a new constitution, a move that could allow for power-sharing as part of a deal aimed at ending weeks of violence in this East African country.