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Global Forecast (07-17-2018)

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Belt and Road’s Kenya railway starts off in the red, Trump and Putin leave a lasting impression in Helsinki, and Japan and the EU buck the protectionist trend with a free trade deal.

Spain: The Final Test Case for Social Democracy in the EU

Pedro Sanchez, cc Rodrigo Ponce de León, modified, https://www.eldiario.es/licencia/ ; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pedro-Sanchez-congreso-PSOE_EDIIMA20170618_0312_21.jpg

Pedro Sanchez and the PSOE must find a workable solution to the migration issue; the future of social democracy in Europe may depend on it.

Backgrounder: Pakistan Election

PakistanElectionProcession, cc Flickr Wasif Malik, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Millions of Pakistanis will head to the polls on July 25 to elect a new government, braving a wave of election-related violence across the country.

Backgrounder: Nord Stream 2

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Key background information on Nord Stream 2, the energy pipeline that was center stage at this week’s NATO summit.

Trump Fires Another Volley in US-China Trade War

Presidents Trump and Xi on the US president's trip to Asia. cc Whitehouse.gov, modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/copyright/

With all avenues to an easy de-escalation now blocked, President Trump’s latest round of tariffs suggests that the US-China trade war is here to stay.

Democracy and the Arc of Progress

StatueofLIberty, cc Flickr Pablo Muñoz, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

After decades of progress, democracy is backsliding worldwide. At what point will people rise up and put a stop to it?

Central Asia in 2018: What’s the Future of the C5+1?

TrumpNazarb, cc Flickr The White House, modified, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/

Washington has been making minor inroads into Central Asia, but will it be enough to stave off diplomatic irrelevance vis-à-vis China and Russia?

South China Sea Dispute: The Philippines

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In the fourth article of our series on South China Sea claimants, we examine the historical reasoning, diplomacy, and military dimensions of the Philippine claim.

Water Conflict: Protests over Water, Pollution Flare in Iran

IranDAM, cc Flickr Ninara, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

A historic drought is bringing water pressures to the fore in Iran and adding to the authorities’ growing list of troubles.

Is Libya the Unlikely Solution to the Franco-Italian Migration Spat?

An Irish boat rescues migrants off the coast of Tripoli; cc Flickr Irish Defence Forces, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Stabilizing Libya to stem the flow of migrants to European shores may be the one thing that Rome and Paris can actually agree on.

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