Comments on: Ukraine Crisis: China’s Crimea Dilemma

By: Anthony Rusonik

Anthony Rusonik — Fri, 07 Mar 2014 01:38:53 +0000

My sympathy and allegiance is to the West in general, and the US in particular. I wonder, however, whether the US has misread the siutation. The post-Yanukovich interim regime is composed of a cast of characters that don’t quite measure up to Western yardsticks of liberal-democracy. It isn’t an exaggeration to suggest there is a threat of a real fascist, racist, anti-Semitic bent to the interim government. Further to that, the Russian call for a referendum, while not quite credible given the presence of Russian troops, isn’t without merit. More to the point, Realists should well understand that Russia has legitimate strategic interests in the chokepoints on the Crimeam peninsula. This is Russia’s core access to the Mediterranean and then to the Atlantic. Western diplomats, whatever their distaste for Putin, need to recognize this. My sympathy and loyalty is with the West, but a part of my empathy is with the Russians. In any case, as for the main thrust of the article, Putin may want Chinese and/or other powerful allies here. That said, this is a core and fundamental Russian interest. If England can sail across the Atlantic to protect the English in the Falklands, and if the US can protect American interests in Iraq and Afghanistan, we should expect Putin to assert conventional Russian interests in Sevastapool. For a diplomatic solution that leaves Ukraine sovereign and in tact, there needs to be recognition of this.

By: Christopher Williams

Christopher Williams — Thu, 06 Mar 2014 06:01:48 +0000

The role of China is probably more important in any resolution to the Ukrainian situation than that of the EU. It does appear as though Putin is able to justify, to Chinese satisfaction, that he is supporting the legitimate government in the Ukraine. And, frankly, it is not a bad point in many respects for both of these countries to accept – and a position that USA and the EU may have taken in only slightly different circumstances.
The question is whether China wants to have any economic confrontation with the West at the moment. There are some reasons why this could be the case, but I do not have sufficient knowledge as to whether they may occur.
I would be most interested in expert views on that point.
The vague suggestion that China would demand debt settlements from the USA in gold does not seem credible, but there are more reasonable threats to the debt management that may have DC concerned about how far to go with attacking Russia financially, for fear of generating a similar response from both former communist countries.
The best chance of a peaceful resolution in the Ukraine remains with China wanting to hold off any action at the moment – and Putin deciding to wait as well until he can be confident of support from his potential friend.
Perhaps the greatest risk is China deciding the time is right for more confrontation with Japan on the disputed islands, so the pressure is on USA in multiple arenas at a time of internal political weakness.