Geopolitical Monitor - Backgrounders

Geopoliticalmonitor.com
October 27, 2008

1. Executive Summary

This report will look at the 2006 London liquid bomb plot, which was “foiled” by the UK government, focus on the roles played by intelligence agencies, and analyze the plausibility of the plot.

2. The “Plot Was Foiled”

On August 10, 2006, the British police arrested 24 terrorist suspects based upon intelligence that “an attack was imminent” in which the suspects were planning to sneak liquid explosives onto five to ten separate transatlantic airliners and detonate them above U.S. cities.

The liquid explosive was to be detonated by a cell phone or MP3 player, after mixing a sports drink with a particular gel-like (peroxide-based) substance, creating a “potent explosive.”[1]

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff was quoted as saying the operation was “well advanced” and “quite close to the execution phase.”[2] The result of foiling the plot was that at British airports, specifically Heathrow, all hand luggage was banned and today, there are still restrictions around the world in taking liquids onto planes.

3. Tracking the Terrorists

Surveillance

The terrorist suspects were tracked and spied on for over a year by police and security officers, notably MI5, who listened to their meetings and monitored their spending. British police and intelligence “liaised closely” with their US counterparts during the surveillance.[3]

Infiltration

It was the British who teamed up with the Pakistanis to “thwart the attacks”, as it started when Pakistani agents arrested certain suspects in Pakistan, prompting the British to act quickly in turn. Further, an undercover British agent had infiltrated the group.[4]

MI5 reportedly had infiltrated a bomb factory a few weeks prior to the arrests, where they “found liquid explosives and detonators.” The British special forces, SAS, and “other surveillance specialists” had undergone “sneak and peak” operations where they conducted covert raids on the homes of the suspects, planting bugs and allowing the Security Services to “eavesdrop.”[5]

Waiting for Disaster

It was also reported that British officials had wanted to wait an extra week before making the arrests, but were “pressured” by American officials to arrest them when they did. The suspects were arrested on suspicion that the terrorist cell was planning on conducting a “dry run” on the planes, as in, not actually carrying out the attacks. This prompted one British official to state that the attacks were “not imminent” and that British authorities had wanted to let the dry run go forward. As the assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism stated, “There was unprecedented cooperation and coordination between the U.S., the U.K. and Pakistani officials throughout the case.”[6]

4. Media Scepticism

News Print Sceptics

Days following the arrests, several UK news sources were expressing some skepticism at the official account of the terror plot. The Guardian reminded journalists to “never believe anything until it has been officially denied,” and question, rather than parrot, official positions.[7] The Times reported that since 9/11, Britain had arrested over 1,000 individuals on suspicion of terrorism yet only 158 were ever charged of anything terrorist related.[8]

An Ambassador Speaks Out

Former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan Craig Murray stated that there was much reason to be skeptical, as “none of the alleged terrorists had made a bomb. None had bought a plane ticket. Many did not even have passports, which given the efficiency of the UK Passport Agency would mean they couldn't be a plane bomber for quite some time.”

He went on to explain that it was an interrogation in Pakistan, which led to the reason for the arrests, and that “the interrogators of the Pakistani dictator have their ways of making people sing like canaries. As [Murray] witnessed in Uzbekistan, you can get the most extraordinary information this way. Trouble is it always tends to give the interrogators all they might want, and more, in a desperate effort to stop or avert torture. What it doesn't give is the truth.”[9]

5. Rashid Rauf, Al-Qaeda and Intelligence Agencies

Who is Rashid Rauf?

On August 14, 2006, it was reported that Rashid Rauf, the suspected ringleader of the liquid bomb plot, had been arrested and after an interrogation by the Pakistani ISI, “provided details that directly link the conspiracy to al-Qaida in Afghanistan.” Rauf, a dual UK-Pakistani citizen, was pinpointed as the ringleader by both British and Pakistani intelligence. Reports of his interrogation said that he was “broken,” almost definitely implying torture being used.[10]

Rauf and the ISI

Further, Rashid Rauf is a very close relative of Masood Azhar, the leader of the Pakistani based terrorist organization, Jaish-e-Mohammed.[11] Jaish-e-Mohammad was founded with Pakistani ISI funding and support,[12] and the ISI has extensive links with both British and American intelligence.[13] While Rashid Rauf was said to be the planner of the plot, Al-Qaeda’s number two man, Ayman al-Zawahri, was said to have “approved the plan.”[14]

Zawahiri and the CIA

During the US-backed war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s, which saw the CIA-ISI network create several terrorist organizations, including Al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahri was recruiting volunteers from the Middle East to fight in the Afghan war as his group received CIA funding.[15]

BCCI, Zawahiri, and Western Intelligence

The Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI), a small Pakistani merchant bank, was turned into a global money-laundering machine in 1976, with the “blessing of George H. W. Bush as the head of the CIA.” BCCI bought up several banks to create a covert money network to finance the clandestine operations of several western and Middle Eastern intelligence agencies. Bush himself had an account with the bank.[16] The Bank was used to launder money in the drug trade, support dictators, was involved with the Iran-Contra Affair and other arms deals, and has many connections to terrorist networks. It had many connections with the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), and it has been implicated in bribery, extortion, kidnapping and murder.[17] BCCI has also been linked with Henry Kissinger and his firm, Kissinger Associates.[18]

Bin Laden and Zawahiri benefited from the collapse of BCCI in 1991, as terrorist organizations had to rely upon Bin Laden’s financial network for funding.[19] Zawahiri ran Al-Qaeda’s operations in the Balkans in the 1990s,[20] which was supported covertly by Western intelligence agencies, particularly those of the US.[21] Clearly, Zawahiri has had many years of links to Western intelligence.

Rauf “Escapes”

In 2006, the suspected liquid bomb plot ringleader, Rashid Rauf, had the charges of the bomb plot against him dropped due to lack of evidence,[22] and in 2007 he escaped from Pakistani police custody, having “managed to open his handcuffs and evade two police guards.”[23]

6. The Explosives

Days after the arrests, an article in the Guardian questioned the use of the liquid explosives, as they would have had to be mixed on the airplane, likely in the bathroom. Gerry Murray of the Northern Ireland Forensic Science Agency had said this would be extremely difficult and could “take several hours.”[24]

Other reports suggested that the explosives would have had to be carried on board in separate containers, and kept very cold, if not frozen.  To properly mix the ingredients into an explosive, one would need several cold gel-packs, a thermometer, a large beaker, a stirring rod, and a medicine dropper. All of this would need to first be smuggled on board the plane, and then into the bathroom where it would take hours to mix. One must also be careful when mixing these particular chemicals, as, if not done properly, there could be a “premature explosion” which would only be large enough to kill the person mixing it. Mixing these chemicals also would create toxic fumes, which would alert fellow passengers, and in a confined space such as an airplane washroom, would likely cause the supposed terrorist to be knocked unconscious. After properly mixing the chemicals, it would need to dry for roughly one to two hours, otherwise it cannot be ignited. Ultimately, the liquid explosive being created on board to take down a plane, “is out of the question.”[25]

 7. The Court Case

In April of 2008, a court case began in which the suspected terrorists were put on trial for the liquid bomb plot. Of the original 24 people arrested, only eight were taken to trial, with the rest not having had enough evidence against them to warrant a conviction. Of the eight who went to trial, three were convicted of conspiracy to commit murder, however “the jury did not convict any defendant of targeting aircraft.”[26]

The three who were convicted had pled guilty to conspiracy to cause explosions while the apparent ringleader was acquitted of all charges, yet the other four defendants had only ever pled guilty to conspiracy to “cause a public nuisance.”[27] The New York Times carried the headline, “No One Convicted of Terror Plot to Bomb Planes.”[28] So, this much-hyped foiled terrorist plot seemed to end up as nothing more than a pipe dream facilitated by western intelligence.

8. Endnotes

[1]    CNN, Agent infiltrated terror cell, U.S. says. CNN International: August 11, 2006: http://edition.cnn.com/2006/US/08/10/us.security/index.html

[2]    Philip Webster, Sean O'Neill and Stewart Tendler, A plan 'to commit unimaginable mass murder'. The Times: August 11, 2006: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article606341.ece

[3]    Bob Sherwood and Stephen Fidler, MI5 tracked group for a year. The Financial Times: August 11, 2006: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/041a9e68-28da-11db-a2c1-0000779e2340.html

[4]    CNN, Agent infiltrated terror cell, U.S. says. CNN International: August 11, 2006: http://edition.cnn.com/2006/US/08/10/us.security/index.html

[5]    Jason Lewis, Terror plot suspects bugged by MI5 'sneak and peak' teams. The Daily Mail: August 12, 2006: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-400310/Terror-plot-suspects-bugged-MI5-sneak-peak-teams.html

[6]    Aram Roston, Lisa Myers, et al., Source: U.S., U.K. at odds over timing of arrests. NBC News: August 14, 2006: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14320452/

[7]    Paul Donovan, Scepticism is needed. The Guardian: August 14, 2006: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2006/aug/14/pauldonovan

[8]    Sean O’Neill and Stewart Tendler, Past blunders put pressure on police to make case stick. The Times: August 12, 2006: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article606828.ece

[9]    Craig Murray, The UK Terror plot: what's really going on? CraigMurray: August 14, 2006: http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2006/08/the_uk_terror_p.html

[10]    Duncan Campbell and Randeep Ramesh, Pakistan says 'ringleader' admits link with al-Qaida. The Guardian: August 14, 2006: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2006/aug/14/afghanistan.world

[11]    Indian Info, London plot planner Rashid Rauf linked to JeM. Indian Info: August 17, 2006: http://news.indiainfo.com/2006/08/17/1708london-plot-jem.html

[12]    Rory McCarthy, Underworld where terror and security meet. The Guardian: July 16, 2002: http://www.guardian.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4462107,00.html

[13]    Andrew G. Marshall, Political Destabilization in South and Central Asia: The Role of the CIA-ISI Terror Network. Global Research: September 17, 2008: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10242

[14]    Amy Guttman, Qaeda No. 2 Behind U.K. Terror Plot? CBS: August 17, 2006: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/08/17/terror/main1903459.shtml

[15]    Jason Burke, Frankenstein the CIA created. The Guardian: January 17, 1999: http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,3809021-103643,00.html

[16]    Joseph Trento, Prelude to Terror. Carroll and Graf: New York, 2005: page 104

[17]    Jonathan Beaty, et. al., Cover Story: The Dirtiest Bank of All. Time Magazine: July 29, 1991: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,973481-1,00.html

[18]    Martin Tolchin, Kissinger Firm Denies Reports of B.C.C.I. Link. The New York Times: November 13, 1991: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CE6D71439F930A25752C1A967958260

[19]    History Commons, September 1992 and After: Al-Zawahiri Frequently Visits Bosnia, Works with Bosnian Muslim Politicians. Complete 9/11 Timeline: http://www.historycommons.org/timeline.jsp?other_al-qaeda_operatives=zawahiri&timeline=complete_911_timeline

[20]    Marcia Christoff Kurop, Al Qaeda's Balkan Links. The Wall Street Journal: November 1, 2001: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/fr/561291/posts

[21]    Richard J. Aldrich, America used Islamists to arm the Bosnian Muslims. The Guardian: April 22, 2002: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/apr/22/warcrimes.comment

[22]    BBC, UK 'plot' terror charge dropped. BBC World: December 13, 2006: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6175427.stm

[23]    AP, Terror Suspect Escapes In Pakistan. CBS: December 15, 2007: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/12/15/world/main3622361.shtml

[24]    Sandra Laville, Five key questions for anti-terror investigation. The Guardian: August 19, 2006: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2006/aug/19/terrorism.world

[25]    Thomas C. Greene, Mass murder in the skies: was the plot feasible? The Register: August 17, 2006: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/08/17/flying_toilet_terror_labs/

[26]    BBC, 'Astonishment' at terror verdicts. BBC News: September 9, 2008: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7605583.stm

[27]    Vikram Dodd, Liquid bomb plot: three guilty of murder conspiracy. The Guardian: September 9, 2008: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/sep/09/3

[28]    John F. Burns and Elaine Sciolino, No One Convicted of Terror Plot to Bomb Planes. The New York Times: September 8, 2008: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/09/world/europe/09london.html

Tags:  Military - Europe - West - United Kingdom