Weekly Forecasts
ListenThreats to American economic dominance and the USD continue to grow as oil producing regions talk about, and act on, abandoning USD denominated oil sales and currency pegs. Iran’s announced February 27 oil bourse launch could mark the end of the American empire as we have known it for the last 60 years.
The arrival of France-led EU troops will prop up Chadian President Idriss Deby allowing him to attack the remnants of the Sudanese-supported UFDD in the East of the country. Deby may also support Sudanese rebels to limit Khartoum’s ability to interfere in Chad.
Following a series of Israeli air, tank and bulldozer attacks, on January 17 Israel locked down the Gaza strip, preventing people and supplies from entering or exiting the region surrounded by towering walls. Israel stated that they acted in response to ongoing Palestinian rocket and mortar attacks on Israeli border communities but a broader strategy of division and confinement appears to be at play.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
Several articles published in the US media have raised alarm over what has been characterized as an emerging South American arms race. While it is true that numerous arms procurement agreements have been made, this alarm is reflective not of hostilities between South American countries but of US concern over its waning influence in the continent.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
The US Diplomatic Offensive
Unable to attack Iran militarily the United States has increased its diplomatic efforts to alienate and weaken the country. The US seeks to increase its power in the Middle East and set the stage for a future attack against Iran.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
Global integration necessitates a soft-landing
While US economic and (consequently) military might will decline, global integration ensures that change will be gradual. The reason for this is that those most able to crash the American economy have much to lose by doing so.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
Bhutto’s Assassination and Instability in Pakistan
President Musharraf and the Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] are the likely perpetrators of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto’s December 27 assassination. With power-sharing arrangements having fallen through, Bhutto actively campaigning against Musharraf and plans by Bhutto to release documents exposing plans to rig the scheduled election, Bhutto posed a serious threat to Musharraf and his supporter’s hold on power.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
Russian Reassertion
Russia has continued to aggressively reassert itself militarily. It has made its new approach clear by threatening to target US missile shield sites with nuclear weapons, testing a new intercontinental ballistic missile and providing nuclear fuel and promises of military assistance to Iran.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
Economy
Despite the US Federal Reserve’s further rate cuts, the threat of American economic decline continues. Iran and Russia’s switch towards selling oil in USD coupled with continued discussion amongst middle eastern oil exporters to decouple their peg to the USD threatens to further erode the foundation of American economic supremacy – the military-enforced sale of oil in USD.