Geopolitical Monitor - Weekly Forecasts - Geopolitical Analysis and Forecasts on Geopolitical Issues in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Americas, and the Middle East

Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

Global media outlets may have a feel-good story in Aung San Suu Kyi’s recent by-election win, but an over-emphasis on the domestic is missing the geopolitical forest for the trees.

Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

Brazil, the world’s sixth largest economy currently faces significant challenges in its attempt to control inflation and combat “Dutch disease”. 

Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

There has been a military coup in Mali.  On the 22nd of March, military officers arrested the president, suspended the Constitution, and imposed a curfew without any resistance.  The troops responsible for protecting the institutions were complicit in the coup.

Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

It is increasingly unlikely that the United States, or Israel, will engage in a military confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program in view of significant political changes within the Islamic Republic and the growing isolation of the Israeli government vis-à-vis its position on Iran. 

Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

Despite protests over alleged vote-rigging, Vladimir Putin is firmly on track to reclaim the Russian presidency in May. But while Putin is poised to return to the office he vacated in 2008, the country he plans to govern is no longer the same.

Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

A delegation from the International Energy Agency spent two days in Baghdad speaking with high-ranking officials in preparation for an end-of-year report on the country's oil sector. By some estimates, Iraq could hold some of the largest oil reserves in the world and an international auction for oil and natural gas blocks is planned for May.

Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

Egypt’s presidential race has begun, with millions of Egyptians ready to take part in May 2012’s historic elections. For the first time in their lives, Egypt’s youth will witness a president other than Hosni Mubarak.

Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

Enrique Peña Nieto, the candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), is likely to become Mexico’s next president following the July election. A capture of Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán Loera, however, chief of the Sinaloa drug cartel, could provide a significant impetus for Felipe Calderón’s center-right National Action Party.

Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

As if the instability and unrest of 2011 had not been enough for Guinea-Bissau, President Malam Bacai Sanhá died on 9 January 2012 after a prolonged illness. This triggered a race for power and brought the country's fate into question. This article discusses the presidential election scheduled for March 18 in the context of this political turmoil.

Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

It has been an exciting New Year for High North policy in the Scandinavian countries. In the annual Foreign Policy Declaration last Tuesday, Sweden’s Foreign Minister Carl Bildt reiterated the government’s intent to push its new Arctic Strategy as one of its core foreign policies.