Weekly Forecasts
ListenWeekly Forecast and Summary of Events
In a move harkening back to the Cold War, Russia has threatened to respond militarily and technologically to U.S plans for a missile defence system in Central Europe, plans that could re-trigger an arms race.
Contrary to claims of taking a more diplomatic approach with Iran, the Bush administration has significantly expanded US covert operations against the Islamic republic courtesy of a $400 million budget approved by Congress last year, thus foreshadowing preparations for war.
Washington has repeatedly denied wanting a permanent military presence in Iraq, however a secret security agreement is being negotiated in Baghdad that would perpetuate the US military occupation of Iraq indefinitely, give free reign to US forces conducting the “war on terror”, and help contain Iran’s influence in the region.
British intelligence confirms the Dalai Lama’s claim that China incited the March 14th Lhasa riots in order to discredit the Tibet independence movement while China says the US supported Dalai Lama is the mastermind of efforts to sabotage the Olympics and destabilize China, paving the way for a US foothold in the geo-strategically important Himalayan region.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
China is selling small arms to Sudan, which are used in the Darfur conflict to maim and kill civilians, in exchange for access to Sudanese oil. The violence in Darfur will continue as long as China continues its oil-for-weapons trade with Sudan.
The recent collapse of investment bank Bear Stearns, the lack of market liquidity and the sub prime mortgage crisis are all representative of more fundamental flaws in the financial system and American economy. Further economic decline can be expected as long as rampant monetary expansion, costly wars and moral hazard creating financial deregulation continue.
The broad response to the March 1sth Columbian air and ground attack on Ecuador to assassinate FARC leader Raul Reyes is reflective not of a threat of war but rather a new South American alliance against US regional influence.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
China and Russia's consent to the new UN Security Council resolution against Iran reflect the modest nature of the resolution and an underlying desire by both countries that Iran not aquire a nuclear deterent, rather than a more fundamental shift in geopolitical alignment.
Serbia and Russia have refused to recognize Kosovo’s independence arguing the declaration is illegal and sets international precedent that is applicable to other breakaway regions including pro-Russian South Ossieta and Abkhazia in Georgia. It is unlikely that Russian will push for the application of this principle too strongly, however, as it could also be applied by separatists in Russia’s Chechnya.
Israel’s strategy of isolation and targeted assassinations can be expected to continue against Hezbollah and Hamas after Israel was widely attributed as being responsible for the car-bomb assassination of Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General Imad Mughniyah on February 13th in Damascus.