Weekly Forecasts
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
Far from being a routine reshuffling exercise, Pakistan’s appointment of a new chief for the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) comes amid growing US pressure for reform and concern about the premier spy agency’s loyalty in the “war on terror”.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
With the “war on terror” entering its seventh year, the Bush administration is brokering dozens of foreign weapons deals in order to combat terrorism by re-arming Iraq and Afghanistan, containing North Korea and Iran, and cementing ties with onetime Russian allies. However this surge in US arms sales could turn into a spiraling arms race and decrease stability in a world of shifting alliances.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
A pre-dawn raid conducted in Pakistan by US commandos from Afghanistan has been condemned by Pakistani officials as a breach of sovereignty, reflecting concerns that the US’ unilateral operations in the “war on terror” could foment social unrest in Pakistan, undermine the civilian government, and imperil US-Pakistani relations.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s decision to resign rather than face impeachment by parliament will have both domestic and international implications: a political power vacuum for a fractious Pakistan, and the loss of a once indispensible ally in the “war on terror” for the US.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
Contrary to being a detached observer of the conflict in Georgia, Russian officials claim the US has incited the Georgian offensive in South Ossetia via years of military assistance and training. Such claims indicate how this regional conflict could mushroom from a proxy war into a direct clash between Russia and the US.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
In a move aimed at spiting Washington for its planned missile defence system in Central Europe, Russia has announced it will boost bilateral cooperation with Cuba. Such cooperation would entail Russian participation in the development of Cuba’s recently discovered oil fields and a potential military presence off the US coast, signaling a deepening of Russian-US tensions evocative of the Cold War.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
In contrast to previous bellicose posturing, Nicaragua’s leftist president offered on Wednesday to mediate talks on behalf of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in an effort to end Colombia’s 44-year civil conflict. Such a shift in tone underscores FARC’s diminished position and reflects attempts by socialist Latin American governments to mitigate US influence in the region.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
In a move harkening back to the Cold War, Russia has threatened to respond militarily and technologically to U.S plans for a missile defence system in Central Europe, plans that could re-trigger an arms race.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
Contrary to claims of taking a more diplomatic approach with Iran, the Bush administration has significantly expanded US covert operations against the Islamic republic courtesy of a $400 million budget approved by Congress last year, thus foreshadowing preparations for war.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
Washington has repeatedly denied wanting a permanent military presence in Iraq, however a secret security agreement is being negotiated in Baghdad that would perpetuate the US military occupation of Iraq indefinitely, give free reign to US forces conducting the “war on terror”, and help contain Iran’s influence in the region.