Weekly Forecasts
ListenAccording to Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith, departing commander of British forces in Afghanistan, the war in Afghanistan is about reducing the insurgency to a manageable level that is not a strategic threat. It appears that NATO is realizing what the Russians were telling them all along: victory in Afghanistan is not achievable. However, it is the politicians who seem oblivious to this predicament.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
The recently negotiated U.S.-Iraq Status-of-Forces security pact signals the beginning of the end of the U.S. occupation of Iraq.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
If the financial crisis caused by Wall Street manages to diminish Washington’s prestige, ability to influence policy, and deters allies from following the US’ lead on foreign policy, it will achieve what 50 years of near nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union failed to do—the dissolution of the American Empire.
Far from being a routine reshuffling exercise, Pakistan’s appointment of a new chief for the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) comes amid growing US pressure for reform and concern about the premier spy agency’s loyalty in the “war on terror”.
With the “war on terror” entering its seventh year, the Bush administration is brokering dozens of foreign weapons deals in order to combat terrorism by re-arming Iraq and Afghanistan, containing North Korea and Iran, and cementing ties with onetime Russian allies. However this surge in US arms sales could turn into a spiraling arms race and decrease stability in a world of shifting alliances.
A pre-dawn raid conducted in Pakistan by US commandos from Afghanistan has been condemned by Pakistani officials as a breach of sovereignty, reflecting concerns that the US’ unilateral operations in the “war on terror” could foment social unrest in Pakistan, undermine the civilian government, and imperil US-Pakistani relations.
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s decision to resign rather than face impeachment by parliament will have both domestic and international implications: a political power vacuum for a fractious Pakistan, and the loss of a once indispensible ally in the “war on terror” for the US.
Contrary to being a detached observer of the conflict in Georgia, Russian officials claim the US has incited the Georgian offensive in South Ossetia via years of military assistance and training. Such claims indicate how this regional conflict could mushroom from a proxy war into a direct clash between Russia and the US.
Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events
In a move aimed at spiting Washington for its planned missile defence system in Central Europe, Russia has announced it will boost bilateral cooperation with Cuba. Such cooperation would entail Russian participation in the development of Cuba’s recently discovered oil fields and a potential military presence off the US coast, signaling a deepening of Russian-US tensions evocative of the Cold War.
In contrast to previous bellicose posturing, Nicaragua’s leftist president offered on Wednesday to mediate talks on behalf of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in an effort to end Colombia’s 44-year civil conflict. Such a shift in tone underscores FARC’s diminished position and reflects attempts by socialist Latin American governments to mitigate US influence in the region.