Weekly Forecasts

U.S. missile shield - November 17, 2008
U.S. missile shield - November 17, 2008
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Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

The U.S.' planned European missile defence shield, a principal feature of the Bush administration’s foreign policy, appears destined for the dustbin after Barack Obama’s recent presidential election victory.
 
Obama & the Mideast - November 10, 2008
Obama & the Mideast - November 10, 2008
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Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

American foreign policy vis-à-vis the Middle East under President-Elect Barack Obama is not likely to differ from his predecessor, the universally reviled George W. Bush.
 
U.S.-Taliban peace talks - November 3, 2008
U.S.-Taliban peace talks - November 3, 2008
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Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

The United States has begun signalling a new strategy in the seven-year long Afghanistan War: peace talks with the Taliban.
 
"Victory" in Afghanistan - October 27, 2008
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Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

According to Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith, departing commander of British forces in Afghanistan, the war in Afghanistan is about reducing the insurgency to a manageable level that is not a strategic threat.  It appears that NATO is realizing what the Russians were telling them all along: victory in Afghanistan is not achievable.  However, it is the politicians who seem oblivious to this predicament.
 
U.S.-Iraq security pact - October 20, 2008
U.S.-Iraq security pact - October 20, 2008
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Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

The recently negotiated U.S.-Iraq Status-of-Forces security pact signals the beginning of the end of the U.S. occupation of Iraq.

 
Wall Street's crisis - October 13, 2008
Wall Street's crisis - October 13, 2008
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Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

If the financial crisis caused by Wall Street manages to diminish Washington’s prestige, ability to influence policy, and deters allies from following the US’ lead on foreign policy, it will achieve what 50 years of near nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union failed to do—the dissolution of the American Empire.

 
Pakistan's new spy chief - October 6, 2008
Pakistan's new spy chief - October 6, 2008
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Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

Far from being a routine reshuffling exercise, Pakistan’s appointment of a new chief for the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) comes amid growing US pressure for reform and concern about the premier spy agency’s loyalty in the “war on terror”. 
 
Foreign arms deals - September 22, 2008
Foreign arms deals - September 22, 2008
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Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

With the “war on terror” entering its seventh year, the Bush administration is brokering dozens of foreign weapons deals in order to combat terrorism by re-arming Iraq and Afghanistan, containing North Korea and Iran, and cementing ties with onetime Russian allies.  However this surge in US arms sales could turn into a spiraling arms race and decrease stability in a world of shifting alliances.
 
Hot pursuit in Pakistan - September 8, 2008
Hot pursuit in Pakistan - September 8, 2008
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Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

A pre-dawn raid conducted in Pakistan by US commandos from Afghanistan has been condemned by Pakistani officials as a breach of sovereignty, reflecting concerns that the US’ unilateral operations in the “war on terror” could foment social unrest in Pakistan, undermine the civilian government, and imperil US-Pakistani relations.
 
Pakistan's murky future - August 18, 2008
Pakistan's murky future - August 18, 2008
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Weekly Forecast and Summary of Events

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s decision to resign rather than face impeachment by parliament will have both domestic and international implications: a political power vacuum for a fractious Pakistan, and the loss of a once indispensible ally in the “war on terror” for the US. 
 
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