Geopolitical Monitor - Situation Reports

As American presidential campaigning intensifies, we are seeing a convergence between the candidates and the Bush administration on the issues of Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan.  What seems clear now is that the next American president will withdraw troops from Iraq, refocus on the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, and hold direct negotiations with Iran.

Last week’s Paris Summit for the Mediterranean confirmed the likelihood of EU primacy over any future Mediterranean Union. More importantly however, the Summit was notable for the inclusion of Syrian President, Bashar Al-Assad, which marks a major thaw in Euro-Syrian relations. This thaw removes a major impediment to a Syrian-Israeli peace treaty.

This past week, Iran noticeably softened its anti-West rhetoric, and European negotiators hinted that Iran may cooperate and abandon its nuclear program. Meanwhile, Israel conducted a massive military exercise simulating a mock attack on Iran, and the Bush administration has begun funnelling $500m towards Iranian insurgency groups. This seemingly contradictory events must be viewed as part of the brinksmanship game being played out by Iran and the West, and which will become ever more tense until Bush’s term expires in November.

This past week, Turkey’s Constitutional Court began hearing a trial that could see the governing AKP (Justice and Development Party) outlawed, and its members banned from politics for five years. Meanwhile, two days ago, the government detained 21 people on grounds of coup-plotting. These moves reflect the chess match underway between Turkey’s secularists and the piety-oriented AKP, and foreshadows political turmoil.

This week’s spectacular attack on a prison in Kandahar demonstrates the Taliban’s reconstitution in southern Afghanistan and presages a violent summer fighting season. NATO and the Afghan army will reduce the Taliban’s capabilities, but the Taliban will remain a robust force until their sanctuary across the border in Pakistan is eliminated – an unlikely event in 2008.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is being investigated for bribery and tax evasion. His popularity has plummeted, and he may be indicted within the month in which case he has pledged to resign. Olmert’s precarious position has emboldened his approach to peace negotiations with the PLO, Hamas, and Syria. At the same time, these peace talks are hollow, and any agreement would suffer from illegitimacy, and be rescinded.

Despite its accusations of “genocide” in Darfur and an outbreak of violence in oil-rich Abyei, the US is negotiating with Sudan to normalize diplomatic relations.  Washington says its aim is to broker peace in Darfur, however what lies at stake are investment opportunities in Sudan’s oil sector as well as Sudan’s continued cooperation with the CIA on counter-terrorism measures in the region.

Dubai recently announced its partnership with China in the creation of a billion dollar investment fund. Saudi Arabia recently announced its commitment to double oil exports to China by 2010. These two announcements exemplify China’s Middle East energy strategy: to entrench itself economically in the region, even at a loss, so as to obtain the political leverage required to secure access to oil and gas.

Syria announced last week the existence of backchannel peace negotiations with Israel. This unexpected announcement reflects Syria’s strategic intent to be seen to be moderating, rather than the achievement of peace itself. Israel is a willing partner in this political charade, but its domestic politics make a peace deal with it’s northeastern neighbour highly improbable.