Geopolitical Monitor - Situation Reports

With Israeli support, Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas, has moved his armed loyalists into key West Bank cities in preparation of a possible conflict with his rival Hamas in January.  Abbas’ constitutional term as president ceases in January, but he refuses to step down.  The constitutional crises will almost certainly lead to armed conflict between Abbas’ Fatah faction and Hamas, endangering any hopes of an Israeli-Palestine peace deal any time in the near future.

Syria officially ended 60 years of non-recognition this past week when it recognized Lebanon as a sovereign state and announced plans to exchange embassies with its neighbour.  The diplomatic move comes at the end of decades of often acrimonious, and violent, relations.  Still, the Syrians influence in Lebanon continues to grow.

The proposed US-Iraqi security pact, required to be in place by January 1^st, 2009, appears increasingly doubtful.  Iraqi and American negotiators are deadlocked on whether or not to allow American personnel immunity from Iraqi law.  Without a bilateral security pact in place by the end of the year, the American occupation of Iraq will be illegal.

The Straits of Malacca are losing their status as the world’s most dangerous waters in exchange for a stretch of water off one of the world’s most lawless failed states.  The past week has witnessed what has become the most dramatic naval standoff since the Cuban Missile Crisis.  The only difference is that this “crisis” involves state and non-state actors, mysterious heavy weapons cargo and the worst case scenario is only the death of the “Faina” crew.

For the first time since the beginning of the ‘War on Terror’, American and Pakistani forces have exchanged fire.  As a result of the escalating American use of force against targets in Pakistan, the Pakistani government and military establishment has warned that they will respond with force to any incursion upon their territorial sovereignty by U.S. forces.  The situation is deteriorating quickly and threatening to open up a third front for American forces in the area.

The Iraqi Sunni insurgent groups recently allied with, and paid by, the Americans officially came under command of the Shi’a controlled Baghdad government on Wednesday.  The American peace deal with the Sunni insurgent groups is seen as the single most vital factor in the de-escalation of violence in Iraq.  However, the transfer of command is raising concerns of the possibility of renewed sectarian violence in Iraq.

On Monday, Israel’s Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, won the leadership race of the Kadima Party, the ruling party in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, following the resignation of the former leader ex-PM Ehud Olmert.  Livni now has 42 days to form a coalition government, failing which Israel’s parliament will be dissolved and fresh elections held.  Meanwhile, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process remains in limbo.

Impeachment proceedings against Pervez Musharraf are gaining momentum. Once he is replaced, however, the parliamentary infighting will continue as a new power structure coalesces. In the meantime, Pakistan lists as its economy implodes and lawlessness spreads in the provinces.

Al Qaeda and the Taliban have carved out Pakistani havens for themselves near the Afghan border and continue to gain political and military strength. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s federal government and military remain disparate and uncoordinated power centres, and neither has a strategy for confronting the growing chaos and violence along the border.