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Geopoliticalmonitor.com
August 30, 2008
1. Executive Summary
2. A Background of the Conflict
3. The War Breaks Out
4. The Role of the US, NATO and Israel
5. Why the War?
6. Conclusion
7. Endnotes
1. Executive Summary
This report examines the motives for the recent outbreak of war in Georgia with Russia and the roles played by western powers, specifically the United States.
2. A Background of the Conflict
After the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, Georgia’s northern province of South Ossetia declared independence but failed to be internationally recognized. South Ossetia as well as Georgia’s other largely autonomous province, Abkhazia, had traditionally been allied with Russia. There have been long-standing tensions between South Ossetia and Georgia and a shaky ceasefire.
3. The War Breaks Out
Rising Tensions With Russia
On August 1, 2008, six people were killed in South Ossetia when fighting broke out between Georgian and South Ossetian forces. Both sides blamed each other for opening fire first, with Russian peacekeepers blaming Georgia and the Georgians blaming Russian peacekeepers.[1]
On August 5, Russia announced that it would “defend its citizens living in the conflict zone” if a conflict were to erupt in Georgia, and the South Ossetian President said Georgia was “attempting to spark a full-scale war.” Further, South Ossetian children were being evacuated out of the conflict zone, an act that was “condemned” by Georgia, saying that the separatists were “using their youngsters as political propaganda.”[2]
Georgia Makes the First Move
On August 7, Georgia and South Ossetia announced a ceasefire in order to hold talks, with Russia as a mediator, in the midst of hundreds of South Ossetians evacuating the area.[3] On the night of August 7, five hours after the declared ceasefire, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili began a military operation against the capital city of South Ossetia, Tskhinvali.[4] The attacks targeted hospitals, the university and left the city without food, water, electricity and gas.[5]
Georgian forces surrounded Tskhinvali, with tanks and troops attacking the city. On Friday the 8th, Russia called for Georgia to halt its military offensive in order to resume talks.[6] That same day, Russia sent troops into South Ossetia amidst the deaths of 2,000 civilians in the region.[7] Russian Prime Minister Putin referred to Georgian actions as “genocide” and Russia also reportedly bombed a Georgian town. Immediately, the US called for “an end to the Russian bombings.” The Georgian President called it an “unprovoked brutal Russian invasion.” Much of Tskhinvali was left in ruins after the Georgian offensive, with 34,000 South Ossetian refugees in Russia.[8]
On August 9, Georgia announced that half of their 2,000 troops deployed in Iraq would be pulled out to return to Georgia to fight against forces in South Ossetia, with the US providing the transportation for the troops back to Georgia.[9]
Russia Defends South Ossetia
Russian troops entering South Ossetia and Georgia largely pushed back the Georgian offensive. They recaptured the capital city of Tskhinvali and destroyed most of Georgia’s military infrastructure through air raids.[10]
The Russians entered into Abkhazia, the other Russian-allied breakaway province in Georgia, and the Georgian city of Gori was occupied by Russian troops who largely targeted the Georgian military base located there.
An End to Operations
On August 12, Russian President Medvedev ordered an end to Russian military operations inside Georgia. That same day, a Six-Point Peace Plan was signed by the Russian and Georgian Presidents and brokered by French President and President-in-Office of the European Union, Nicolas Sarkozy. On August 13, the remaining Georgian troops left South Ossetia.
By August 22, Russian troops had returned to their previous positions before the outbreak of hostilities, as agreed to by the Peace Plan. On August 25, the Russian Parliament formally recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.
4. The Role of the US, NATO and Israel
The “Rose Revolution”
Georgia held parliamentary elections on November 2, 2003, in which Eduard Shevardnadze emerged the winner. As reported by the Globe and Mail, billionaire investor George Soros had, since at least February 2003, been working at the “toppling of Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze.” Soros’ Open Society Institute had funneled money to Georgian resistance groups and brought in individuals to teach over 1,000 students “how to stage a peaceful revolution.” This Soros-financed and trained network was instrumental in organizing the street protests that followed the elections, ultimately leading to Eduard Shevardnadze’s resignation. Soros also presented Saakashvili, Shevardnadze’s main opponent, an award from the Open Society Institute. Shevardnadze was even quoted as saying, “George Soros is set against the President of Georgia.”[11]
Among many donor partners with the Open Society Institute and Soros Foundations are the United Nations Foundation, the World Bank, the Ford Foundation, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Fund and the Rockefeller Foundation.[12]
The US Ambassador to Georgia at the time, Richard Miles, coached “Mikhail Saakashvili in how to bring down Eduard Shevardnadze.” Miles was previously US Ambassador to Belgrade, where he played a key role in getting rid of Milosevic. These “revolutions” in Eastern Europe were well funded, organized and trained by a network of US government agencies, such as USAID, as well as NGOs such as the Soros Foundations and Freedom House.[13]
US Advisers and Special Forces
After having installed an American friendly and American educated puppet leader, the US developed closer ties with Georgia. Even as early as 2002, US military advisers were in Georgia in an effort to open up a “new front” in the war on terror, with Americans there to “train the Georgian army in how to counter militant activity.”[14] When hundreds of US Green Berets and roughly 200 Special Forces went to Georgia in 2002 to train Georgian forces “for anti-terrorism and counterinsurgency operations”[15], Russia warned that US involvement in Georgia could “complicate” the situation.[16]
War Games and Preparations
On July 15, 2008, it was reported that 1,000 US troops in Georgia began a military training exercise with Georgian troops called “Immediate Response 2008.” The same report stated that “Georgia and the Pentagon [cooperated] closely.” The training exercise came amidst growing tensions between Russia and Georgia, while the US was simultaneously supporting Georgia’s bid to become a NATO member.[17]
It was also reported that 1,200 US servicemen and 800 Georgians were to train for three weeks at a military base near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi.[18] The exercise was being run in cooperation with NATO and was preceded by a visit to Georgia by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, where she met with the President and stated that, “the future of Georgia is in NATO.”[19]
After the US and Georgia began conducting joint exercises, the Russian Army began military exercises on the other side of the Caucasus mountains, involving up to 8,000 Russian servicemen.[20]
It was reported that US military instructors were in Georgia when the conflict with Russia began.[21] Russia’s envoy to NATO also accused NATO of encouraging Georgia to take the offensive against South Ossetia.[22]
Israel in Georgia
The Georgian tanks and artillery that captured the South Ossetian capital on August 8 were aided by Israeli military advisers. In the year leading up to the conflict, the Georgian President had commissioned upwards of 1,000 military advisers from private Israeli security firms to train the Georgian armed forces, as well as offer instruction on military intelligence and security. Georgia also purchased military equipment from Israel.[23]
5. Why the War?
Political Pipelines
A key factor in determining the causes and purpose of this war could lie in Georgia’s strategic position. Georgia lies between Russia and Turkey, between the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, and above Iran and Iraq. The significance of Georgia as a strategic outpost cannot be underestimated. This is true, particularly when it comes to pipelines.
The Baku Tblisi Ceyhan (BTC) Pipeline, the second largest pipeline in the world, travels from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, through Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, to Ceyhan, a Mediterranean port city in Turkey. This pipeline creates a route that bypasses both Iran and Russia, to bring Caspian Basin oil resources “to the United States, Israel and Western European markets.” The US company, Bechtel, was the main contractor for construction, procurement and engineering, while British Petroleum (BP), is the leading shareholder in the project.[24]
Israel gets much of its oil via Turkey through the BTC pipeline route, which played a part in Israel’s motivation for helping Georgia as the West and Russia battle for control of pipeline routes.[25]
Russia’s Shaky Relationship With BP
TNK-BP was formed in 2003 with the merger of BP’s Russian oil and gas assets and the oil and gas assets of Alfa, Access/Renova Group (AAR). BP owns 50% of the company, while Russian-based AAR owns the other 50%. One of TNK-BP’s directors is Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, former UK Defence Secretary from 1997 to 1999, and former Secretary General of NATO from 1999 to 2003.[26]
However, TNK-BP’s CEO, Robert Dudley, an executive with BP, has caused much controversy within the organization, as he was said to be favouring BP over its Russian partners. This caused much animosity between BP and four Russian billionaires in the partnership. On August 15, 2008, a Russian court ruled that Dudley was barred “from holding office in Russia for two years.”[27] As of August 28, it was reported that BP was holding “secret, high-level negotiations with the Russia-connected billionaires” in the TNK-BP project.[28]
BP and Western Intelligence
In March of 2008, Russia brought espionage charges against two brothers with dual Russian-US citizenship for gathering secret information to give foreign oil companies a competitive advantage; one of the brothers was an employee for TNK-BP. This spurred the Russian police to search the Moscow offices of BP and TNK-BP, which apparently turned up “business cards of representatives of foreign defense departments and the (U.S.) Central Intelligence Agency.”[29]
The British paper The Mail on Sunday briefly reported a story before having it pulled from their website, regarding how BP had “worked with MI6 to help bring about changes in foreign governments,” as well as spend “millions of pounds on champagne-fuelled sex parties to help secure lucrative international oil contracts.” BP would work closely with British intelligence, MI6, “at the highest levels,” in order “to win business in the region and influence the political complexion of governments.”[30]
Military-Strategic-Pipeline Alliances
Clearly, BP is a geopolitical powerhouse of a company, which does not appreciate competition. However, competing pipelines being built by consortiums owned predominantly by Russia and China threaten the West’s access to Central Asia’s enormous gas and oil reserves. As Michel Chossudovsky documented, on one side is the NATO-GUAM military-strategic alliance, which includes NATO members and Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova, and has great significance in protecting and fostering Western-oriented pipeline projects. On the other side there is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which bring a military and strategic alliance between Russia, China, several Central Asian states, and Iran. Part of their priorities are protecting and fostering oil pipelines that deliver gas and oil reserves to China and Russia.[31[
Encircling Russia and China
Not only is Georgia of geostrategic importance to pipeline transportation routes, but it is also central to the West's strategy of encircling Russia and China in an effort to prevent their rise to super-power status. In 1992, after the fall of the Soviet Union, Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney had Pentagon officials like Paul Wolfowitz write up a plan for the US' strategy in a post-Cold War world. The goal was “to ensure that no rival superpower is allowed to emerge in Western Europe, Asia or the territories of the former Soviet Union,” specifically focusing on China and Russia.[32] The encirclement of Russia also had a large part in breaking the former Yugoslavia and more recently, recognizing Kosovo as an independent nation.[33]
Brzezinski’s Warning to Russia
Zbigniew Brzezinski, a Polish-American political scientist, geostrategist, and statesman who served as Jimmy Carter’s National Security Adviser, Barack Obama’s foreign policy adviser, co-founded the Trilateral Commission with banker David Rockefeller, and admitted to creating Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan as a method of giving the Russians “their Vietnam”, had a few words to say about the situation in Georgia in a recent issue of Time Magazine.
He started by blaming Russia’s “invasion of Georgia” on its “imperial aims.” Brzezinski blamed much of this on the “intense nationalistic mood that now permeates Russia’s political elite.” Brzezinski went on to explain Georgia’s strategic significance, stating that “an independent Georgia is critical to the international flow of oil,” since the BTC pipeline “provides the West access to the energy resources of central Asia.” Brzezinski warned Russia of being “ostracized internationally,” in particular its business elite, calling them “vulnerable” because “Russia’s powerful oligarchs have hundreds of billions of dollars in Western bank accounts,” which would be subject to a possible “freezing” by the West in the event of a “Cold War-style standoff.”[34]
6. Conclusion
Russia appears to be in the position of being threatened to conform and adhere to a Western-dominated international system of governance or to face the consequences of political isolation, financial attack, or a renewed Cold War. Ultimately, Georgia is a small player in this big global game, however, its significance in accelerating the game forward cannot be underestimated.
7. Endnotes
[1] Civil.ge, Six Die in S.Ossetia Shootout. Civil Georgia: August 2, 2008: http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=18871
[2] BBC, Russia vows to defend S Ossetia. BBC News: August 5, 2008: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7543099.stm
[3] RT, Georgia and South Ossetia announce ceasefire. Russia Today: August 7, 2008: http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28621
[4] BBC, Heavy Fighting in South Ossetia. BBC News: August 8, 2008: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7546639.stm
[5] Michel Chossudovsky, War in the Caucasus: Towards a Broader Russia-US Military Confrontation? Global Research: August 10, 2008: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9788
[6] AFP, Heavy fighting as Georgia attacks rebel region. AFP: August 7, 2008: http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jy0s0tG42xwDFY5Uy_9JhazKqgEA
[7] Vladimir Radyuhin, Status quo not possible: Moscow. The Hindu: August 13, 2008: http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/13/stories/2008081355031500.htm
[8] Musa Sadulayev, Georgia: In 'State of War' Over South Ossetia. The New York Sun: August 9, 2008: http://www.nysun.com/foreign/georgia-in-state-of-war-over-south-ossetia/83529/
[9] Deborah Haynes, Georgia pulls 1,000 troops from Iraq. The Times Online: August 9, 2008: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article4491866.ece
[10] Vladimir Radyuhin, Status quo not possible: Moscow. The Hindu: August 13, 2008: http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/13/stories/2008081355031500.htm
[11] Mark MacKinnon, Georgia revolt carried mark of Soros. The Globe and Mail: November 26, 2003: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20031126.wxsoros1126/BNStory/Front/
[12] OSI, Soros Foundations Network 2007 Annual Report. Open Society Institute: Pages 149-150: http://www.soros.org/resources/articles_publications/publications/annual_20080728
[13] Ian Traynor, US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev. The Guardian: November 26, 2004: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa
[14] BBC, US military advisers arrive in Georgia. BBC News: February 27, 2002: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/1843909.stm
[15] Tim Dyhouse, Green Berets now in Georgia: U.S. Special Forces are training Georgian soldiers to fight radical Muslims. VFW Magazine: June-July 2002: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0LIY/is_10_89/ai_87509631
[16] NewsMax.com Wires, Special Forces to Train Georgian Military. News Max: February 28, 2002: http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/2/27/144331.shtml
[17] Reuters, U.S.-Georgia training begins amid Russia strain. Georgian Daily: July 15, 2008: http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4305&Itemid=67&lang=ka
[18] AP, Georgia, US start military exercises despite tensions with Russia. CNews: July 15, 2008: http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2008/07/15/6162566-ap.html
[19] Kavkaz Center, Russian military gangs ready to invade Georgia. U.S. sends thousand marines in response. Kavkaz Center: July 10, 2008: http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2008/07/10/9971.shtml
[20] News Europe, US army exercises begin in Georgia. Al-Jazeera: July 15, 2008: http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/07/200871515107741998.html
[21] AFP, Russia: US Military Advisers In Georgia Ahead Of Conflict. Morningstar: August 12, 2008: http://news.morningstar.com/newsnet/ViewNews.aspx?article=/DJ/200808121135DOWJONESDJONLINE000420_univ.xml
[22] RT, NATO encouraged Georgia – Russian envoy. Russia Today: August 9, 2008: http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28660
[23] DEBKAfile, Israel backs Georgia in Caspian Oil Pipeline Battle with Russia. DEBKAfile: August 8, 2008: http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1358
[24] Oil and Gas, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline Company founded. Oil and Gas of Uzbekistan: September 19, 2002: http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/company/cnc23849.htm
[25] DEBKAfile, Israel backs Georgia in Caspian Oil Pipeline Battle with Russia. DEBKAfile: August 8, 2008: http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1358
[26] TNK-BP, Lord Robertson of Port Ellen. Our Company-Board of Directors: http://www.tnk-bp.com/company/governance/directors/robertson/
[27] Reuters, Court bars TNK-BP chief executive from working in Russia for two years. The National Post: August 15, 2008: http://www.nationalpost.com/related/links/story.html?id=725993
[28] Michael Stott, BP in secret talks with oligarchs over TNK unit. The Globe and Mail: August 28, 2008: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080828.IBTNKBP28/TPStory/TPBusiness/Europe/
[29] AP, Russia charges brothers with 'spying' after BP raids. CTV: March 20, 2008: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080320/russia_arrests_080320
[30] Glen Owen, Hookers, spies, cases full of dollars...how BP spent £45m to win 'Wild East' oil rights. Mail on Sunday: May 13, 2007: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article17699.htm
[31] Michel Chossudovsky, The Eurasian Corridor: Pipeline Geopolitics and the New Cold War. Global Research: August 22, 2008: http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9907
[32] Patrick E. Tyler, U.S. Strategy Plan Calls for Insuring No Rivals Develop A One-Superpower World. The New York Times: March 8, 1992: http://work.colum.edu/~amiller/wolfowitz1992.htm
[33] Andrew G. Marshall, Breaking Yugoslavia. Geopolitical Monitor: July 21, 2008: http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/content/backgrounders/2008-07-21/breaking-yugoslavia/
[34] Zbigniew Brzezinski, Staring Down the Russians. Time Magazine: August 14, 2008: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1832699,00.html