Analysis: Minsk Ceasefire

Ukraine Minsk Ceasefire, Geopoliticalmonitor.com

Summary

The main points of the ceasefire agreed upon in Minsk by leaders from Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia are as follows:

 

  1. A total ceasefire to begin on February 15, 2015.
  2. A withdrawal of heavy weapons by both sides, 50 km – 140 km from the frontline depending on the weapon type.
  3. Day-one monitoring of the ceasefire terms by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
  4. A full pardon and amnesty for combatants held on both sides.
  5. The launching of a dialogue on self-rule in the rebel-held east.
  6. Restoration of social and economic interactions with war-torn areas.
  7. Full withdrawal of mercenaries and foreign troops from eastern Ukraine.
  8. The launching of a process of constitutional reform in Ukraine, to be completed by the end of 2015.
  9. Kiev to regain control of state borders and international border with Russia.

 

Outlook

German Chancellor Angela Merkel characterized the ceasefire agreement as a “glimmer of hope” upon return to Germany – an apt description given reports of intensified fighting for Debaltseve and new movements of Russian armor into the east after the accord was signed.

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